LA Bowl – Boise St vs Washington
posted December 10
The Game
Ah yes, the City of Angels. Los Angeles plays host to one of the sneaky‑good matchups of the 2025 bowl season, and it’ll provide a tasty backdrop of violent crime, unrelenting traffic snarls, rivers of pure filth, and uncountable masses of humans who’ve been tossed in the trash bin thanks to government corruption. But hey, how about those Lakers!
Boise State (9‑4) somehow found their way into the Mountain West Championship Game despite a very underwhelming regular season, courtesy of a tiebreaking mechanism and a SAFE and EFFECTIVE algorithm that smelled vaguely like corruption. Didn’t matter — once they got there, they bludgeoned UNLV and claimed their THIRD straight Mountain West title, which is legitimately impressive. Sadly, they’re off to the “new and improved” PAC‑12 next season.
Washington (8‑4) slogged through a MEH regular season in the Big Ten and didn’t collect any head‑turning wins. The upside: they still took a step forward in year two of the Jedd Fisch regime (6‑7 last year) and look poised to keep climbing the conference ladder.
The Details
Washington -9.5 Boise St (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Washington -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Washington 31 Boise St 21.5
Washington offense vs Boise St defense
The Huskies have done a good job on offense, averaging 415 YPG (#5 Big Ten) and 34 PPG (#5). There’s no doubt they’ve had far more success against teams at or below their talent level — and thankfully for them, Boise State falls into that category. It appears the fantastic TRIUMVIRATE of QB Demond Williams (70%, 21 TD passes, 595 rushing yards, 6 TD), RB1 Jonah Coleman, and star WR Denzel Boston are all expected to play, though bowl season always comes with a side of uncertainty. Washington also has other capable options at WR/TE, and RB Adam Mohammed enters with back‑to‑back 100‑yard games.
Boise State has been legitimately effective against the pass (#12 FBS pass efficiency defense, 13–14 TD‑INT, 54% completions allowed), though they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of opposing quarterbacks. Still — credit where it’s due. The real problem comes against the run, where they sit #88 nationally and have surrendered an ugly 180 YPG over their last four outings. Washington isn’t elite on the ground, but Williams is a devastating scrambler and the Huskies are very good on 3rd downs, which could be the difference.
Boise St offense vs Washington defense
The Broncos have really come on since the return of starting QB Maddux Madsen (18 passing TD, 4 rushing), and they’ve shown excellent balance between the run and the THROW GAME. The matchup that’ll likely decide the outcome (and the ATS winner) is the fantastic 1‑2 RB combo of Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines (a combined 1,886 rushing yards and 18 TD) against a stout Huskies run defense (104 TPG allowed, #17 FBS). Washington has held up against the run in almost every game, and remember: they held mighty Oregon to just 106 yards on 42 carries (!) — a paltry 2.5 YPC.
Madsen is a crafty QB, but he’ll need the ground game to function if Boise State wants to move the ball with any consistency. Washington doesn’t have a great pass rush, but they’ve been solid enough against the pass that Boise is going to have to work for everything they get.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
All four LA Bowls have been decided by double digits, and the Mountain West owns a 3–1 record in those games. Boise State hasn’t won a conference title and a bowl game in the same season since 2017. The fine folks at College Football News remind us that the last Power Four (at the time) team Boise St beat was Florida St at the beginning of the 2019 (!) season. The Broncos enter this matchup 5‑6‑1 ATS, while Washington sits at an even 6‑6 ATS.
Washington is +1.61 in net YPP margin and has played the #44 schedule. Of their eight wins, only TWO have come against bowl teams (Illinois, Washington State).
Boise State is +0.49 in net YPP margin against the #82 schedule. They’ve logged five wins over fellow bowl teams (UNLV twice, Utah State, New Mexico, App State).
Given that the game is being hosted by Gronk, it now makes complete sense that the halftime show involves four strippers, a vat of VANILLA YOGURT, and assorted medieval torture devices.
Summary
This is a difficult game to call. The fundamental matchup favors Washington as they should be able to handle the Boise St ground game. On the other hand, motivation may lie with the Broncos as they face a Power Four opponent, and it’s not like the Huskies have beaten a bunch of good teams.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.