Salute to Veterans Bowl – Troy vs Jacksonville St
posted December 12
The Game
It’s the battle for the GREAT STATE OF ALABAMA as the Troy Trojans square off with the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in the Salute to Veterans Bowl down in Montgomery. It’s a short trip for both squads, and more importantly, it’s the BATTLE for the OL’ SCHOOL BELL. More on that later.
Troy (8–5) had a very interesting season. They came out of nowhere to snatch the Sun Belt West Division despite being outgained in seven of their last eight games. The Trojans were smoked by James Madison in the Sun Belt Championship Game, but they hung around for a while despite being outgained 411–177 in that contest.
Jacksonville State (8–5) exceeded expectations in what many thought would be a rebuilding — or at least reloading — season. They gave mighty Kennesaw State all they could handle in the CUSA Championship Game and even took a late lead, only to lose a close one in the final minutes.
The Details
Troy -2.5 Jacksonville St (46.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Troy -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Troy 24.5 Jacksonville St 22
Troy offense vs Jacksonville St defense
The Troy offense has been a mess this season, but they somehow managed to win their division despite finishing the regular season #123 (!) in total offense (314 YPG) and #130 (!) in rushing (99 YPG). They’ve had trouble getting anything going on the ground, and #1 RB Tae Meadows hitting the transfer portal means he won’t be available here. The rushing stats look truly heinous thanks to an offensive line that’s allowed an impossibly impossible 57 (!!!) sacks, including 32 in their last five games — by far the worst total in the country.
It won’t matter much who’s at QB, as both Tucker Kilcrease and GOOSE Crowder have been very similar in terms of efficiency, but Kilcrease (the likely starter) has a bit more ability to do damage with his legs. The Trojans do their best work through the air thanks to the receiving duo of Rara Thomas and Tray Taylor, who both average over 16 YPC, and they’ll need big days from both if Troy plans on winning this event.
Jacksonville State is nothing special on defense (#67 run D, #77 pass efficiency D), but they can put a little heat on the QB (26 sacks, #4 CUSA), and that should come in handy against this horrible Troy offensive line.
Jacksonville St offense vs Troy defense
Run baby, run. That’s gonna be the game plan for the Cocks as they boast one of the most potent ground attacks in the country (258 YPG, #4 FBS). QB Caden Creel has rushed for almost 1,100 yards at 6.4 YPC (7 TD), and star RB Cam Cook leads college football in rushing (1,659 yards, 5.6 per, 16 TD). This DYNAMIC DUO is extremely tough to control, and Troy ranks just #113 in run defense (183 YPG) after allowing three teams to go over 300 yards on the ground — including James Madison in last week’s conference title game.
Creel isn’t a very effective passer (61%, 8–4 TD‑INT), but he’s got a legit #1 target in Deondre Johnson, who’s really come on in the second half of the season (623 yards, 26.0 YPC!, 6 TD). Troy has been effective vs. the THROW GAME, so their best shot is to stack the box, try to slow down the run, and hope the secondary can hold up against a limited passing attack. We’ll see what happens, yo.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Ah yes, the Battle for the OL’ SCHOOL BELL. Fun fact: The origin of this trophy dates back to when these teams were competitors in what is now known as the FCS. The school bell represents the shared roots of both programs as teachers’ colleges.
The long‑range forecast looks good as we approach press time, but as always, check the latest weather if you’re planning on playing the total.
Troy is ‑0.94 (!) in net YPP margin and has played the #93 schedule. They’re dead last in the Sun Belt in YPP offense (4.73). The Trojans have beaten three bowl teams this year (Southern Miss, Texas State, Louisiana).
Jacksonville State is +0.26 in net YPP margin and has navigated the #142 (!) schedule. They’re first in CUSA in YPP offense (5.97). The Cocks have also taken down three bowl squads (WKU, Kennesaw State, Delaware).
The Trojans are 9-4 ATS and have covered the spread in three consecutive games. The Cocks are 6-7 ATS.
Troy has been outscored this season (318-316) and been outgained to the tune of 4084-4949 (67 YPG) (!).
Summary
We definitely prefer the underdog Cocks in this matchup, as they’ve got a very favorable matchup with their rushing attack against the Troy defense. The Trojans have played the tougher schedule, but they’ve also been outgained by almost 1,000 yards this year. We’ll wait and see if we can snag a +3 closer to gameday. If the line drops, we’ll play it down to +1. Stay tuned.
Conclusion
Holding pattern as per above.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.