posted December 12
68 Ventures Bowl – Louisiana vs Delaware
The Game
68 Ventures loves you. And this wonderful real estate investment company is sponsoring this bowl game as part of their role as a “change agent for growth”. The holiday season always chokes us up.
Louisiana (6–6) rescued their season from the SCRAP HEAP by ripping off four straight wins to get bowl‑eligible. The finale was a nail‑biter, as they needed to slither past their hated rivals from ULM in overtime. Delaware (6–6) has done fine work in their first season at the FBS level, and while they faded a bit in the second half of the year, the Blue Hens still have to be thrilled about making a bowl game — especially since this wasn’t really on the radar back in August. More on that below.
The Details
Louisiana -3 Delaware (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Louisiana -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Louisiana 31.25 Delaware 28.25
Louisiana offense vs Delaware defense
The Cajuns were on a TRAIN to NOWHERE before our boy LUNCH Winfield took over at QB and got the rushing attack rolling. Winfield finished the regular season with a 10-6 TD to INT mark but he did some great work on the ground creating a nightmare for opposing defenses (627, 9 TD). The THROW GAME is one of the worst in the country but the Cajuns have a spicy 1-2 combo at RB in Bill Davis and Zylan Perry who’ve combined to rush for over 1,400 yards and 14 TDs.
Delaware has a very sketchy defense (411 YPG, #110), but at least they haven’t been completely horrible vs the run (164 YPG, #89). The Cajuns should be able to do some serious damage in this game but note that Winfield got banged up in the Cajuns’ last game (lower body injury), and whilst he should be good to go, you can never be sure during bowl season.
Delaware offense vs Louisiana defense
The Fightin’ Blue Hens have had a prolific offense behind star QB Nick Minicucci, who’s put up big numbers this season (3,505 yards, 22 TDs; plus 10 rushing scores). Delaware doesn’t do much on the ground, but they’re a legit passing operation (302 YPG, #6 FBS) featuring a pair of dangerous WRs in Sean Wilson (787 yards, 2 TD) and Kyre Duplessis (764 yards, 5 TD).
Louisiana, meanwhile, brings one of the worst defenses in the bowl field (417 YPG allowed, #115). The secondary has been shaky (#106 pass efficiency D, 17–9 TD‑INT, 67% completions allowed), so it’ll be interesting to see how they hold up against Delaware’s aerial attack in this event.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Delaware found their way into a bowl game by picking up six wins, and there were enough bowl spots left over after other teams failed to hit the requisite win total or quit on the season because they were BIG MAD or feeling sorry for themselves.
The long‑range forecast for Mobile, Alabama looks fine as we approach press time, but keep an eye on things as we get closer to gameday if you plan on hitting the total.
Both teams should be plenty motivated. Delaware is thrilled to be in a bowl game, and Louisiana has dropped three straight bowl appearances.
Louisiana is ‑0.68 in net YPP margin and has played the #109 schedule. They’ve taken down three bowl teams (Marshall, Texas State, Arkansas State).
Delaware is ‑0.49 in net YPP margin and has navigated the #127 schedule. They’ve also beaten three bowl squads (UConn, FIU, Louisiana Tech).
Louisiana is 6–6 ATS, while Delaware sits at 4–7–1 vs. Vegas.
Summary
This is a tough game to call. Both teams should fire their best shot, and both offenses will be able to do some damage. Too bad the total is sitting around 60, which is exactly where we thought it should be posted. Nothing for now, but we may revisit closer to gameday.
Conclusion
No leanage so far.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.