Posted December 10, 2025
Cure Bowl – Old Dominion vs USF
The Game
We’ve got a fine match‑up in this year’s CURE BOWL, as two of the best teams in the Group of Five square off down in Orlando. Old Dominion (9–3) finished 2nd in the Sun Belt East behind mighty James Madison, riding a potent offense and an underrated defense to one of the best seasons in program history.
USF (9–3) was one of the biggest stories in college football early on when they SHOCKED THE WORLD, knocking off Boise State and Florida in back‑to‑back weeks to open 2–0. They stayed firmly in the mix in the rugged American Conference until a mid‑November stumble at Navy knocked them out of the title chase.
The Details
USF -6 Old Dominion (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – USF -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: USF 30.25 Old Dominion 25.25
USF offense vs Old Dominion defense
The Bulls are absolutely DEVASTATING on offense, ranking #2 nationally in total offense at 502 YPG, and they can beat you however they want — pounding you on the ground (225 YPG, #10) or slicing you up through the air (276 YPG, #18). Of course, the MILLION‑DOLLAR question is whether star QB Byrum Brown suits up. It’s the headline story going into this game, and for good reason: all Brown did was throw for 3,000+ yards and 28 TDs while rushing for 1,000+ yards and 14 TDs. He was legitimately one of the best players in the country during the 2025 regular season. We’re leaning toward Brown not playing — the line movement down below the key number of –7 is telling — but nothing is confirmed. If he sits, this might be the perfect moment to give true freshman Locklan Hewlett a start, especially since he’s the likely QB1 in 2026.
USF’s WR room is dangerous, but the biggest edge in this matchup is the Bulls’ deep, physical RB rotation against an Old Dominion defense that has been leaky vs the run. The Monarchs allow 147 YPG (#65), but the real eyebrow‑raiser is what happened when they faced the TRIUMVIRATE of Indiana, Marshall, and James Madison — they surrendered a staggering 281 rushing YPG across those three games. Old Dominion does bring a legit pass rush (35 sacks, #2 in the Sun Belt) and a strong pass‑efficiency defense (#29 FBS), so we’re not expecting USF to go wild through the air regardless of who’s at quarterback. This one sets up as a run‑game showcase for the Bulls.
Old Dominion offense vs USF defense
Of course, the other big story in this game is the fact that Old Dominion’s star QB Colton Joseph has hit the transfer portal, leaving inexperienced backup Quinn Henicle to steer the ship. Henicle has some wheels, but it’s not fair to expect him to light it up through the air. Joseph’s absence is massive — he threw for 2,600+ yards and 21 TDs while also ripping off a 1,000‑yard rushing season (6.4 YPC, 13 TD). That veteran dual‑threat production is very tough to replace.
The Monarchs have been outstanding on the ground all season (237 YPG, #7 FBS), thanks not only to Joseph’s legs but also a top‑tier RB room led by Trequan Jones (736 yards, an eye‑popping 7.6 YPC, 5 TD). And even without Joseph, ODU’s THROW GAME can’t be ignored — they’ve got a legit trio of WRs, each over 600 yards with 15 combined TDs, so the passing threat is still real.
South Florida’s pass defense has shown cracks (#119 nationally, 252 YPG), but context matters: they’ve surrendered yards while playing from ahead, and the efficiency numbers are steadier than the raw yardage suggests (15–14 TD/INT, 63% allowed, 6.7 YPA). The Bulls have been solid vs the run (134 YPG, #47), but they’re absolutely going to get tested by this ODU rushing attack. Old Dominion’s offensive line has quietly been one of the best pass‑pro units in the Group of Five (16 sacks allowed, #1 Sun Belt), while USF brings an average but capable pass rush (29 sacks, #5 American). One major concern for ODU, though, is the turnover bug — USF has forced 24 takeaways (#9 FBS) and sits at +9 in turnover margin. That’s a dangerous matchup dynamic when you’re starting an inexperienced QB.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Former USF HC Alex Golesh is off to coach the mighty Auburn Tigers, leaving DL coach Kevin Patrick in charge for the bowl game. Orlando, of course, is home to SEVERELY OVERPRICED theme parks where the employees and some questionable strangers take thousands of pictures of your kids whether you want them to or not — or even know about it. It’s also a short drive from Tampa, so USF should feel right at home.
The long‑range weather forecast looks great as we approach press time, but if you’re thinking about playing the total, keep an eye on things closer to kickoff. This game has produced some comically bad weather in recent years.
Old Dominion enters at +2.08 in net YPP margin after playing the #110 schedule. The Monarchs have four wins over bowl teams (Coastal, App State, Troy, Georgia Southern).
USF sits at +2.03 in net YPP margin against the #75 schedule. The Bulls also own four wins over bowl teams — Boise State (!), North Texas (!), UTSA, and Rice — plus that notable upset in Gainesville vs the Gators.
Against the number, USF is 8‑3‑1 while Old Dominion is 7‑5.
Old Dominion will be looking to win their first bowl game since the 2016 Bahamas Bowl.
Fun fact: These two teams are a combined 12‑0 (!) at home but just 6‑6 on the road. Both squads play their best ball in their own stadium, so it’ll be interesting to see how things translate on a neutral field.
Summary
We prefer USF in this matchup as they’ve got the better overall roster and have competed very well vs a tougher schedule. However, it makes it tricky to predict when both starting QBs are missing. We’ll keep tabs on things and see what other players decide to quit and skip the game, and go from there.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.