posted December 27
Music City Bowl – Tennessee vs Illinois
The Game
The GREAT STATE of TENNESSEE takes center stage on Tuesday as Nashville hosts another fine edition of the Music City Bowl.
Tennessee (8-4) was a bit of a disappointment this season as they struggled to get the “W” every time they stepped up in class. Their dreams of a repeat visit to the CFP were dashed with a home loss to the Sooners, and then they were buried in the regular season finale by Vanderbilt.
Illinois (8-4) has had the same issue as the Vols in terms of struggling vs the better teams on their schedule, but they did manage to find a way to slither past USC at home in late September. The Illinois has won three of their last four contests.
The Details
Tennessee -2.5 Illinois (61.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Tennessee -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tennessee 32 Illinois 29.5
Tennessee offense vs Illinois defense
The Vols have been a potent operation this season (#4 total offense), and they’ve averaged a whopping 41 PPG (#6). QB Joey Aguilar has been lighting up secondaries (3,444 yards), though he’s been plagued by mistakes (24–10 TD‑to‑INT). Aguilar will be without star WR Chris Brazzell (1,017 yards, 9 TD), but he’ll still have a pair of 700‑plus‑yard WRs in Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews to lean on. The run game is in excellent shape with the 1–2 punch of DeSean Bishop and Star Thomas, who’ve combined for over 1,500 yards and an impossibly impossible 21 TDs.
Illinois has been pretty solid on defense this year, particularly vs the run (#35 run D, #61 pass‑efficiency D), and note that they allowed just 15 PPG over their last four contests. However, it should be noted that they’ll be without star LB Gabe Jacas who leads the teams in sacks (11, only player with more than two!).
Illinois offense vs Tennessee defense
Illinois hasn’t exactly been a JUGGERNAUT on offense this year (370 YPG, #81), but they’ve managed to SCORE the FOOTBALL on a fairly regular basis (29 PPG, #53). QB Luke Altmyer is an extremely efficient specimen (68%, 21–5 TD‑to‑INT), and he’s also booked four TDs on the ground.
Speaking of the rushing attack, it’s been a bit of a slog (131 YPG, #100), but there’s hope against a Vols stop unit (#66 run D) that’s been weakened by departures. Illinois should have success through the air as Tennessee has struggled vs the pass all season (#91 pass‑efficiency D), though the weaponry will be downgraded if #1 WR Hank Beatty (826 yards, 3 TD) decides to hang ’em up before kickoff. It really stings that the Vols will be without stud LB and #1 tackler Arion Carter.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Illinois HC Bret Bielema is 5–6 in bowl games (1–1 with Illinois; beat South Carolina LY).
Volunteers HC Josh Heupel is 3–4 in bowl games (2–2 with Tennessee).
Illinois is +0.55 in net YPP margin vs the #28 schedule. They’ve beaten four bowl teams, with their most notable victory coming at home vs USC.
Tennessee is +1.05 in net YPP margin vs the #39 docket, but the Vols have only posted a win over ONE bowl squad (Mississippi State, 5–7 record).
Illinois is 7–4–1 ATS, while the Vols are just 5–6–1 vs the spread.
Summary
Both teams should be able to move the football with relative ease, but we trust the Illinois defense a wee bit more. The Illini also have the more impressive résumé. We’ll monitor the news as we get closer to gameday and go from there.
Conclusion
Holding pattern as per above.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.