posted December 30
Sun Bowl – Arizona St vs Duke
The Game
It’s a tradition that dates back to the 1930s. It’s the Sun Bowl, bay-bee.
Arizona State (8–4) couldn’t reach the lofty heights of last year’s squad that made the CFP, but that was an extremely high bar to clear. The Sun Devils dropped three conference games, but they hold the distinction of being the only team in the galaxy to take down mighty Texas Tech this year.
Duke (7–5) pulled off the near‑impossible by making the ACC Championship Game despite losing five regular‑season contests. They had a soft conference schedule and took full advantage, going 6–2 in ACC play and winning a corrupt five‑team tiebreaker. The Blue Devils then proceeded to SHOCK THE WORLD by winning the ACC Championship Game over Virginia.
The Details
Duke -3.5 Arizona St (48.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Duke -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Duke 26 Arizona St 22.5
Duke offense vs Arizona St defense
The Blue Devils were fortunate to have QB Darian Mensah at the controls, as he’s been one of the most productive passers in all of college football (3,646 yards, 68%, 30–5 TD‑to‑INT!) this year. Mensah loves to spread the ball around — nine players on the roster have 100+ receiving yards — and he especially likes to target WR Cooper Barkate (1,069 yards, 6 TD). Duke also boasts a spicy #1 RB in Nate Sheppard, who’s well on his way to a 1,000‑yard season (962 yards, 10 TD).
Arizona State doesn’t give up much on the ground (117 YPG, #2 Big 12), and they’re not bad against the pass either (#7 Big 12 pass‑efficiency D). The Sun Devils will be missing a few key players on this side of the ball, but the quitting/opt‑out/injury carnage is nothing like what we see on offense. That gives them a fair shot to slow down Duke and keep this thing competitive.
Arizona St offense vs Duke defense
QB Jeff Sims hasn’t been great, but he’s certainly exceeded expectations after replacing Sam Leavitt, who led the team to a Big 12 Championship in 2024. Sims hasn’t been a complete disaster throwing the ball, but he is what he is at this point (7–5 TD‑to‑INT, 52%). What he is, though, is a very dangerous runner — see: the 228 (!!) rushing yards he hung on Iowa State.
Unfortunately for Arizona State, they’ll be without star WR Jordyn Tyson (711 yards, 8 TD) and 1,100‑yard RB Raleek Brown in this event, and it’s going to be a challenge for the Sun Devils to move the football. Duke is MEH vs the run (140 YPG, #52) and horrible vs the pass (#131), so there will be opportunities for ASU to have some success despite all the missing pieces.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Motivation is a question mark for both teams. Arizona State made the CFP in 2024, and now they’re in the Sun Bowl. Hey, we love the Sun Bowl, but that’s a bit of a step down for the Sun Devils. Meanwhile, Duke is on CLOUD NINE after winning the ACC title, and they’ve gotta make the long trip down to El Paso.
Fun fact: the last bowl victory for Arizona State came back in 2019 — wait for it, keep waiting — the Sun Bowl.
Duke HC Manny Diaz is 0–3 in bowl games (0–1 with Duke, 0–2 with YOUR Miami Hurricanes).
Arizona State is +0.61 in net YPP margin vs the #43 schedule. They’ve beaten three bowl squads, including Texas Tech.
Duke is +0.06 in net YPP margin vs the #47 list of assignments. The Blue Devils have taken down five bowl teams, including two in a row (Wake Forest, Virginia).
Duke is 6–6–1 ATS, whilst the Sun Devils are 5–6–1 vs the number.
Summary
Duke has the advantage in this game with star QB Darian Mensah at the controls. However, both teams are well‑coached, and it’s tough to get a read on the motivation level for either squad. Duke games have been a bit crazy all season, to say the least, so we’ll take a wait‑and‑see approach on this one.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.