posted December 28
Liberty Bowl – Navy vs Cincinnati
The Game
It’s a tradition that dates back to 1959. It’s the Liberty Bowl, and Navy will battle Cincinnati down in Memphis for all the glory.
Navy (10–2) has had a great year. They finished tied atop the American Conference standings but were shunned in a corrupt tiebreaker. Just kidding. Not really. The good news is they found a way to beat their hated rivals from Army in a thriller (W 17–16) to cap off the regular season in style.
Cincinnati (7–5) was on a major roll, losing just one of their first eight games, and they looked like a team that could weasel into the Big 12 Championship Game. Unfortunately, the Bearcats SHAT the BED in glorious fashion and dropped their final four games. Can they break the losing streak and head into 2026 with some momentum?
The Details
Navy -7 Cincinnati (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Navy -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Navy 30.5 Cincinnati 23.5
Navy offense vs Cincinnati defense
The Navy rushing attack moves like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE, and they lead the nation in rushing at a whopping 289 YPG. QB Blake Horvath has piled up over 1,100 (!) yards on the ground with 15 TDs, and RB Alex Tecza has been extremely productive as well (822 yards, 9 TD). One of our favorite players is SB/WR Eli Heidenreich — Navy’s all‑time leading receiver (877 yards, 5 TD) — and he’s also chipped in 437 rushing yards and 3 TDs. You can’t completely sell out to stop the run because Horvath can beat you with his arm too (10–6 TD‑to‑INT, 10.2 YPA).
Cincinnati will be missing a ton of defensive players in this game, including star DT Dontay Corleone, though he hasn’t been a major factor this season due to injury. Their stop unit (#99 run D) really fell apart down the stretch, allowing three of their last five opponents to rush for well over 200 yards. That doesn’t bode well for this matchup.
Cincinnati offense vs Navy defense
The HITS KEEP COMING for Cincinnati as star QB Brendan Sorsby (27–5 TD‑to‑INT, 9 rush TD) has fled the scene, leaving the offense in the hands of backup QBs Brady Lichtenberg and Samaj Jones — a duo with a combined eight attempts this year. The good news is the Bearcats should have all their key RB/WR/TE weaponry available, including RB Tawee Walker (709 yards, 4 TD), RB Evan Pryor (522 yards, 3 TD), WR Cyrus Allen (665 yards, 12 TD), and stud TE Joe Royer (416 yards, 4 TD). Guys could always change their mind before kickoff, but as of now things look solid everywhere except the giant question mark at quarterback. Navy has been decent vs the run (141 YPG, #55) but very sketchy vs the pass (#106), and they’ve only picked off six passes all season.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Navy has won three bowl games in a row, including last year’s upset of Oklahoma (!) in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Cincinnati has dropped three straight bowl games, though they haven’t appeared in one since 2022. HC Scott Satterfield is 4–1 in bowl action (App State, LUA‑VUH).
Navy is +0.65 in net YPP margin vs the #106 schedule. The Middies have beaten four bowl teams, including three straight to end the regular season (USF, Memphis, Army).
The Bearcats are +1.50 in net YPP margin vs the #62 (!) docket, but they won’t have their star QB in this game. Cincinnati hasn’t booked a win over a bowl team, but they did beat three bowl‑eligible squads that sucked out and refused to play in bowl season (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State).
Navy has a surprisingly weak 4–8 ATS mark considering they’ve got 10 wins. Cincinnati is 6–6 vs the number.
Summary
It’s tempting to take a shot with the underdog, as the Bearcats could make this interesting if they get any kind of decent QB play. Navy is gonna be tough to stop, but they’ve struggled to cover the spread as favorites this season. We may come back to this one later.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.