CFP – Round One – Miami at Texas A&M
posted December 16
The Game
Yes, guy.
YOUR Miami Hurricanes (10–2) are beloved by everyone. It’s clear that the holiday season will be that much more special given their involvement in the College Football Playoff ***. The Hurricanes looked like one of the best teams in the country early in the year when they booked wins over Notre Dame, Florida, and South Florida, but they were subsequently left for dead after dropping games to LUA‑VUH and SMU. The Canes closed the season with four consecutive wins, including a spanking of Pitt on the road, and managed to slither into the CFP.
Texas A&M (11–1) was one of the most exciting teams to watch during the regular season, and they looked borderline elite heading into November. However, they needed a miracle comeback to beat South Cackalacky (W 31-30) and move to 10–0, and then finally tasted defeat at Texas in the regular‑season finale (L 27–17). Will the time off help the Aggies get back to the form that made them look so devastating?
*** Needs fact check
The Details
Texas A&M -3.5 Miami (51.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas A&M -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas A&M 27.5 Miami 24
Texas A&M offense vs Miami defense
The Aggies have a lethal offense (454 YPG, #20 FBS), and one of the things that makes them so dangerous is their ability to be balanced (#25 rush, #34 pass). The other element that causes headaches for opposing defenses is the dual‑threat ability of star QB Marcel Reed (25 TD passes, 466 rush yards, 6 TD). However, Reed has made a few too many mistakes (10 INT), and note that the Aggies have been (-2) or worse in the turnover department in four (!) of their last five games. Star RB Le’Veon Moss looks like he’ll be back for this game, and he forms a strong 1–2 punch with Rueben Owens. The WR group is one of the most dangerous in the CFP, as KC Concepcion and Mario Craver have both topped 800 receiving yards (13 combined TDs), and don’t sleep on WR Ashton Bethel‑Roman‑Hyphen (459 yards, 23.0!, 5 TD) — he’s a big play waiting to happen.
Miami brings an excellent defense into the CFP, allowing 278 YPG (#11) and 14 PPG (#6). Nobody has put up more than 24 points in regulation against the Canes. Texas A&M has one of the best offensive lines around, so they should be able to run the ball with some success, and we expect Reed to escape the pocket and do some damage. The big challenge for Miami will be containing the explosive Aggies THROW GAME. SMU lit up Miami for 365 (!) yards through the air, and they also have a mobile QB. The Hurricanes have a dangerous pass rush (34 sacks, #17 FBS), but Texas A&M only gives up one sack per game (12, #11 FBS).
Miami offense vs Texas A&M defense
Miami likes to run the football and control the clock (#5 time of possession FBS), but they aren’t a great running team (150 YPG, #77). Mark Fletcher is a decent #1 RB (685 yards, 10 TD, 4.9 YPC), but he’s not very explosive, and the depth in the room isn’t that great. The Canes do their damage when teams sell out to stop the run and QB Carson Beck dices them up (3,073 yards, 25–10 TD/INT, 75%!). Beck runs hot and cold and can definitely be forced into mistakes.
Miami has their version of the deadly KC Concepcion in true freshman (!) WR Malachi Toney, who’s one of the most exciting players in the country (84 receptions, 970 yards, 7 TD; 25 catches in his last two games). And for those keeping score at home, Toney also has two passing TDs and a rushing score. Miami has other capable weapons at WR/TE, so the Texas A&M secondary will be tested.
The YUUUGE battle to keep an eye on is the Texas A&M pass rush (41 sacks, #1 FBS) vs a Miami offensive line that gives Beck all kinds of time to throw (11 sacks allowed, #7 FBS). As for defending the run, the Aggies have shown vulnerability (127 YPG allowed, #38), but it’s not like Miami has the ability to break off a ton of big gainers. We’ll see how things go.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Miami has only played FOUR road games this season. The Canes rolled past Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Pitt, and they lost at SMU.
Texas A&M is +1.81 in YPP margin vs the #16 schedule. The Aggies have beaten six bowl teams, and their best wins came on the road vs Notre Dame (!), LSU, and Missouri.
Miami is +1.52 in YPP margin vs the #30 schedule. The Canes have taken down four bowl squads, with their most notable wins being a home victory over Notre Dame (!) and a road win at Pittsburgh.
Texas A&M comes into this game 5–7 ATS, whilst Miami is 7–5 vs the number.
Texas A&M is 1–11 (!) in College GameDay appearances, including 1–3 at home.
The weather forecast looks great as we approach press time — sunny, temps in the 70s.
Summary
We prefer the Texas A&M side in this game. They’ve faced a tougher slate of opponents, have a dangerous mobile QB, and enjoy home‑field advantage. Miami hasn’t been asked to play in a nasty road setting yet this year. We’ll let things simmer a wee bit and decide what to do.
Conclusion
Holding pattern as per above.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.