CFP – Round One – Tulane at Ole Miss
posted December 11
The Game
We’ve got a DAVID vs. GOLIATH matchup in Oxford as the Tulane Green Wave (11‑2) battle the Ole Miss Rebels (11‑1) in a Round One CFP extravaganza.
Tulane has had a wonderful season and most recently slayed North Texas to capture another American Conference Championship (also won in 2022). The Green Wave dropped only two games all year — a road bludgeoning at the hands of UTSA, and a loss in this very stadium to this very same Ole Miss squad (L 45‑10). HC Jon Sumrall will be coaching the Florida Gators next season, but he’ll stick around to lead the Wave into the CFP.
Ole Miss has been in a handful of close games this season and collected five one‑score victories along the way. They closed the year strong with five straight wins, and their only loss came on the road against the mighty Georgia Bulldogs — a game they easily could have won (L 43‑35). HC Lane Kiffin is off to LSU and no longer with the program, but by the time you read this, he could be the head coach at Michigan… or the President of EGYPT. Anything is possible.
The Details
Ole Miss -17.5 Tulane (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ole Miss -16
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ole Miss 37 Tulane 19.5
Ole Miss offense vs Tulane defense
The Rebels are gonna be a HOT HANDFUL for the Tulane defense as they lead the SEC in total offense (498 YPG, #3 FBS) and can be devastating both on the ground (189 YPG, #4 SEC) and thru the air (310 YPG, #1 SEC, #3 FBS). QB Trinidad Chambliss is one of the most lethal dual‑threat QBs in the nation (18–3 TD‑INT, 6 rushing TD), and he’s surrounded by a loaded WR/TE group plus a legit #1 RB in Kewan Lacy (1,279 yards, 20 (!) TD).
We feel pretty good about Tulane’s ability to slow down the ground game — they’ve really stepped up in recent weeks, allowing a mere 60 (!) YPG over their last five outings, and the pass rush has heated up down the stretch (12 sacks in their last three games). The bad news: Tulane struggles defending the THROW GAME, and their secondary has plenty of holes (#95 pass efficiency D). They’ve picked off a lot of passes (15, #12 FBS), but Chambliss doesn’t make many mistakes. The Rebels also do an excellent job protecting the passer (16 sacks allowed, #2 SEC), so the Green Wave are going to have trouble generating their usual level of havoc.
Tulane offense vs Ole Miss defense
Tulane’s offense has been quietly effective this season (411 YPG, #42) and they’ve been more productive down the stretch, putting up 34+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. QB Jake Retzlaff just WINS football games, and he’s posted 17 passing TDs along with an impossibly impossible 23 (!) TDs on the ground. The Wave are deep at RB and WR, making it tough for defenses to key on any one or two guys. The most likely candidates to step up here are RB Jamauri McClure (two 100‑yard efforts in his last three games) and WR Shazz Preston (598 yards, 4 TD).
Ole Miss is nothing special on defense (#13 SEC run D, #5 pass efficiency D), and Tulane’s best approach will be to grind out first downs with their deep RB stable and Retzlaff’s legs, then try to hit a deep shot or three when the Rebels least expect it. Ole Miss doesn’t bring an overwhelming pass rush (#10 SEC sacks, 25) and they’ve only picked off seven passes all year. Tulane can absolutely have success if they avoid living in 3rd‑and‑long.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
New Ole Miss HC Pete Golding will be coaching his first game and will be going up against one of the best young HCs in the sport in Jon Sumrall. Apparently, Ole Miss OC Charlie Weis Jr. will be calling plays for the duration of the Rebels’ postseason run, so that’s a positive.
Tulane is 7‑6 ATS whilst Ole Miss clocks in at 6‑6 ATS.
Ole Miss is +1.46 in net YPP margin against the #39 schedule. They’ve beaten five bowl teams, with only one of those conquests coming on the road (Oklahoma) (!).
Tulane is +0.65 in net YPP margin vs. the #72 schedule. The Wave have also taken down five fellow bowlers, with their most impressive wins coming against Duke (H), Memphis (A), and North Texas (H).
Summary
We don’t believe Tulane has the MINERALS to win this game, but we do think they’re talented enough to keep things interesting for a while — especially if they catch a few breaks in the turnover department. At +17.5 it’s dog or pass. We’ll dig a little deeper and see if we can uncover a few player props that look worth a small taste.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.