CFP – Round One – James Madison at Oregon
posted December 11
The Game
QUACK ATTACK time, yo.
The Oregon Ducks (11‑1) have looked really good since the beginning of the year, and whilst they lost to the #1 team in the country — the Indiana Freaking Hoosiers — they also found a way to win a couple of tough road games (Penn State, Iowa). Pretty much everyone else on their schedule was destroyed and turned into pulp.
James Madison (12‑1) has been a WRECKING BALL and was clearly the best team in the Sun Belt, and one of the best teams in the entire Group of Five. They roll into Eugene as Sun Belt champions on an 11-game (!) winning streak with their only loss being a close one at LUA‑VUH back in early September.
The Details
Oregon -21.5 James Madison (50.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oregon -21
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oregon 36 James Madison 14.5
Oregon offense vs James Madison defense
The Ducks have been ruthlessly efficient on offense and waddle into the CFP with a potent attack averaging 38 PPG (#9 FBS). QB Dante Moore isn’t the flashiest specimen, but it’s hard not to be impressed with how he’s played this year (73%, 24–6 TD‑INT, 8.6 YPA) — especially considering Oregon has dealt with a rash of injuries at the WR position. The real engine of the offense is the ridiculously talented RB room featuring three nightmares with different skill sets (Whittington, Davison, Hill) who’ve combined for nearly 1,800 yards and 23 TDs. We’re not sure if WRs Dakorien Moore or Gary Bryant Jr. will be available, but the Ducks still have plenty of THROW GAME weaponry, including WR Malik Benson and star TE Kenyon Sadiq.
James Madison brings a legitimately great defense, particularly against the run (76 YPG allowed, #2 FBS). The question is how they’ll hold up when taking a YUUUGE step up in class against one of the best rushing attacks in college football. The Dukes also excel vs. the pass (#6 FBS pass efficiency D, 49.5% completions allowed, 14–12 TD‑INT), but they didn’t face many dangerous passing offenses, and they allowed 200+ passing yards five times. JMU led the Sun Belt in sacks (36), though eight of those came in the title game vs. Troy. It’ll be a challenge to get heat on Dante Moore — he gets the ball out quickly, and Oregon has only allowed 14 sacks all year.
James Madison offense vs Oregon defense
The Dukes do a good job moving the football (448 YPG, #22 FBS) and they’re very adept at putting points on the board (37 PPG, #10 FBS) thanks to explosive plays on offense and an opportunistic defense. Alonza Barnett is a dangerous dual‑threat QB (23 passing TD, 17 rushing), but he makes a few too many mistakes (10 INT). If James Madison wants to accomplish anything in this event, they’ve gotta get the ground game rolling (246 YPG, #6 FBS). RB Wayne Knight is a big play waiting to happen (1,263 yards, 6.3 YPC, 9 TD) and he’s also a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield (379 yards, 10.1 per, TD).
The Dukes’ WR corps is a good one by Group of Five standards, but they’ll find it tough to get open against an excellent Oregon secondary (#4 FBS pass efficiency D, 52% completions allowed, 12–13 TD‑INT, 5.4 YPA). Unfortunately for JMU, the Ducks are also tough to run against (107 YPG, #20), so it could be a long night for the James Madison offense.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
James Madison HC Bob Chesney will be off to UCLA after the CFP, but he’ll be coaching the Dukes in this game. Oregon lost both of their coordinators, but everyone is sticking around for the Ducks’ playoff run.
Oregon is +2.92 (!) in net YPP margin and has played the #17 schedule. The Ducks have beaten six bowl teams, including road victories over Iowa and Washington.
James Madison is +2.35 in net YPP margin against the #104 (!) docket. They’ve defeated eight bowl teams, with their most impressive wins coming at home vs. Old Dominion (W 63–27) and on the road vs. Texas State (W 52–20).
Both teams have treated DEGENERATE NATION well this year. Oregon is 8–4 ATS, while James Madison clocks in at 8–5 ATS.
Summary
Yikes.
We’re thrilled for the James Madison program, but this is an insanely tough assignment. Going into Eugene — at night, no less — to face a loaded Ducks squad will almost certainly lead to a blowout. It probably won’t matter in the grand scheme, but we’d prefer to lay a clean ‑21, so we’ll reassess if that number becomes widely available.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.