posted December 13
Xbox Bowl – Missouri St vs Arkansas St
The Game
We’ve got good news to report as Bill Gates has taken a break from conspiring to eliminate the human race, and he’s inspired Microsoft to sponsor a new bowl game.
Missouri State (7–5) has been a major success story in year one of their sojourn into the FBS ranks, giving teams plenty of trouble in CUSA and managing to win seven games. They didn’t exactly take down a who’s who of college football, but they were fun to watch and deserve credit for a fine regular season.
The AWOOOO Arkansas St Red Wolves (6–6) are participating in their third consecutive bowl game after slithering past Appalachian St in a very entertaining regular season finale (W 30–29). Arkansas St has been the Group of Five’s version of the CARDIAC KIDS over the last few seasons — 7–1 in one‑score games in 2024, followed by a 3–4 mark in one‑score affairs this year. We’ve enjoyed the clutch play and crazy endings, and for those suffering from Arkansas State DERANGEMENT SYNDROME, complaining that a mid‑range Sun Belt team is scrappy and winning more close games than they lose… maybe take a break. Go on a long walk. Sit in a corner with a coloring book and some smushed peas. Get a hug from your mommy. Just chill, yo.
The Details
Arkansas St -1 Missouri St (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Arkansas St -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Arkansas St 28.75 Missouri St 27.75
Arkansas St offense vs Missouri St defense
The AWOOOOOO Red Wolves don’t have much of a rushing attack to speak of (128 YPG, #102), and they do the vast majority of their work through the air behind veteran QB Jaylen Raynor (3,073 yards, 16–11 TD/INT). Raynor can be frustrating to watch because he makes too many mistakes, but he’s also tough to defend since he can hurt you with his legs (434 yards, 7 TD). Arkansas State boasts a dangerous WR corps led by star wideout Corey Rucker (866 yards, 3 TD), and note that Rucker has averaged 94 YPG over the last eight games.
Missouri State actually plays pretty good defense (385 YPG allowed, #3 CUSA) and has been average against the pass (#6 CUSA pass‑efficiency D). It seems pretty simple to us: Arkansas State should be able to execute their offense and probably run it a little bit, but they’ll need to finish drives in the red zone and avoid turnovers. As someone who watches a lot of their games, it’s been painful to see plenty of seemingly productive drives end in mistakes. The good news is that Missouri State isn’t particularly adept at rushing the passer or forcing turnovers.
Missouri St offense vs Arkansas St defense
Missouri St just might have the quarterback advantage in this game, as veteran QB Jacob Clark has put together a very impressive campaign (24–11 TD/INT, 8.5 YPA). The Bears bring a more balanced offense than what the Red Wolves offer, and RB Shomari Lawrence is closing in on a 1,000‑yard season (964, 7 TD). Missouri State has thrown for 280+ yards in 4 of their last 5 games, and eight different players have topped 200 receiving yards, so we expect them to try to do a lot of damage with the THROW GAME.
Arkansas St has been a bit better on defense this season (415 YPG allowed vs. 462 in 2024), but they don’t provide much resistance against the run or the pass, and they rank next‑to‑last in the Sun Belt in pass‑efficiency defense (68% allowed, 17–7 TD/INT). It’s going to be YUUUGE for the Red Wolves to crank up the pass rush, and they’ve done a decent job there (31 sacks, #4 Sun Belt). Missouri State’s pass protection has been a full‑blown FIASCO — they’ve allowed the most sacks in CUSA (44, #134 FBS).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Missouri St HC Ryan Beard is off to coach Coastal Carolina and will not be leading the team in the bowl game. They haven’t announced an interim HC as we approach press time. Too bad Beard had to leave because of the “contract” and abandon the team making its first bowl appearance. Apparently, one more week would have made the Earth explode.
As noted earlier, Arkansas St is playing in a bowl game for the third straight season. HC Butch Jones is 5–3 in bowl games, including a 1–1 mark with the Red Wolves.
Arkansas St is sitting at –0.99 (!) in net YPP margin and they’ve played the #105 schedule. They’ve beaten four bowl teams along the way (Texas State, App State, Troy, Georgia Southern) and only lost by eight points vs Iowa St.
Missouri State is +0.16 in net YPP margin and they’ve navigated the #114 docket. The Bears’ wins have come mostly against a disgusting heap of street grime, with only one bowl team being conquered (FIU).
Both teams have been friends of DEGENERATE NATION. Arkansas State is 8–4 ATS, while Missouri State clocks in at 7–5.
Weather will not be an issue as the game is being played at the Dallas Cowboys’ indoor stadium and practice facility in Frisco, TX.
Summary
We’re looking forward to this game but it’s a tough nut to crack from a handicapping perspective. This has the makings of a coin toss, and it’s lined appropriately in our view.
Conclusion
No leanage so far.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.