posted December 18
New Orleans Bowl – WKU vs Southern Miss
The Game
The BIG EASY is ready to host another New Orleans Bowl as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers roll into town to battle the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. WKU (8–4) didn’t have the explosive offense we expected during the regular season, but they stayed in the hunt for a trip to the CUSA title game until the final week, when they dropped a close decision to the eventual champs from Jacksonville St. Southern Miss (7–5) began the year like a HOUSAFIRE and looked like a MORTAL LOCK to win the Sun Belt West Division title, but they SHAT the BED in shocking fashion and lost their final three games.
The Details
WKU -5 Southern Miss (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – WKU -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: WKU 31.25 Southern Miss 26.25
WKU offense vs Southern Miss defense
As per usual, the Toppers don’t get much done on the ground (#92 FBS), but their output of 134 YPG is still a big step up from what we saw in 2024 (109 YPG) thanks to the 1–2 RB combo of Marvis Parrish and La’Vell Wright. Rodney Tisdale has taken over the QB duties and, while his stat line is similar to former starter Maverick McIvor, Tisdale brings more mobility and seems to give the offense a little extra juice. WKU has a deep collection of WR/TE weaponry led by WR Matthew Henry (762 yards, 6 TD), but there aren’t any killer gamebreakers on the roster like in previous seasons.
Southern Miss has been a mess when it comes to stopping the run (177 YPG, #104), so the Toppers should be able to mix things up a bit. The Golden Eagles have been strong from an efficiency standpoint vs the pass (#42 pass efficiency D), thanks in large part to an impossibly impossible 21 INTs — tied with Notre Dame for the most in the country. Southern Miss will almost certainly need to bag an interception or three if they wanna pull the upset.
Southern Miss offense vs WKU defense
The Golden Eagles do the vast majority of their damage through the air behind the arm of QB Braylon Braxton, who’s one of the best signal callers in the Sun Belt (2,796 yards, 65%, 23–7 TD/INT). Braxton hasn’t had the same mobility since he injured his knee vs Arkansas State in early November, but his arm is just fine — as evidenced by his 400‑yard passing game vs South Alabama in the penultimate week of the regular season. Southern Miss has a deep WR corps, and six players on the roster have booked more than 200 receiving yards this year.
The Toppers have been efficient vs the pass (#20 FBS!), and unlike Southern Miss — who thrives on picking off passes — WKU’s specialty is making it difficult for opposing teams to complete throws (56%). WKU can’t stop the run (181 YPG, #111), so we expect the Golden Eagles to have the ability to stay balanced on offense.
One thing to keep an eye on as we approach gameday is the status of star CB Josh Moten (5 INT). Will he quit to “prepare for the NFL,” or will he go out there one more time with his teammates?
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Former Southern Miss HC spent one season in Hattiesburg before quitting to “prepare for the NFL.” Oh, wait! Our bad. He’s off to coach Memphis next season, and Blake Anderson — a crafty veteran — will lead the team in the bowl game and in 2026.
Southern Miss is +0.12 in net YPP margin vs the #113 schedule. The Golden Eagles have taken down five bowl teams (App St, Jax St, Ga Southern, Louisiana, Arkansas St).
WKU is +0.40 in net YPP margin vs the #139 (!) schedule. The Toppers have beaten three bowl teams (Missouri St, Delaware, Louisiana Tech).
The Toppers are an impressive 9–3 ATS whilst the Golden Eagles are a disappointing 5–7 vs the number.
Southern Miss has never beaten Western Kentucky (0–4).
Both teams average precisely 29.8 PPG. WKU allows 402.6 YPG, Southern Miss 402.3 YPG. Guess we’re headed for OT in this game, yo.
Southern Miss is +12 in turnover margin (#6 FBS) whilst WKU is –5 (#104).
Summary
This should be one of the more entertaining games on the early bowl season card. Southern Miss has the best player on the field in QB Braylon Braxton, and they’re a very opportunistic bunch. We prefer the underdog, but let’s see if we get more clarity on the rosters before gameday.
Conclusion
Holding pattern for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.