CFP – Round Two – Ole Miss vs Georgia
posted December 31
The Game
This is a fantastic way to end a great day of football on New Year’s Day as the Georgia Bulldogs take on the Ole Miss Rebels in a SPICY quarterfinal CFP matchup.
Georgia (12–1) got better as the season went along, as evidenced by their dominant wins over Texas (35–10) and ROLL TIDE (28–7) in the SEC Championship Game. They’ll be looking to double up on an Ole Miss team they beat in a thriller down in Athens earlier this season (43–35).
Ole Miss (12–1) faced off against Tulane in Round One of the CFP and smoked them for the second time this season (41–10). The Green Wave moved the ball at times but were clearly no match for the Rebels. Can Ole Miss give Georgia all they can handle once again?
The Details
Georgia -6.5 Ole Miss (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia 31 Ole Miss 24.5
Georgia offense vs Ole Miss defense
The Bulldogs have been inconsistent on offense this season, but they’ve still managed to put up 32 PPG (#31 FBS) and 407 YPG (#47). QB Gunner Stockton is one of the most underrated players in college football (23–5 TD‑to‑INT, 71%; 442 rush yards, 8 TD), and he’s a perfect fit for what Georgia wants to do. They like to pound you with the run game, hit you with play‑action, and mix in the quick THROW GAME to doods like the deadly Zachariah Branch (744 yards, 5 TD). The Bulldogs’ offensive weaponry also includes a deep RB room — led by Nate Frazier (861 yards, 6 TD) — and dangerous pass‑catching TEs (Delp, Luckie).
Ole Miss is going to have to come up with a better game plan than they had the last time these two teams met, as Georgia DID NOT PUNT, won the yardage battle 510–351, and held the ball for 38 minutes. Ole Miss was up by nine heading into the 4th quarter and could’ve easily pulled off the upset, but there’s no doubt the stop unit will have to step it up on New Year’s Day. The Rebels rank #9 in the SEC in total defense and #10 in YPP.
Ole Miss offense vs Georgia defense
Speaking of excellent QB play, Trinidad Chambliss is a fantastic dual‑threat specimen who’s been great since the moment he took over the starting gig (3,016 yards, 18–3 TD‑to‑INT; 470 rush yards, 6 TD). Chambliss was playing at another level in the last battle with Georgia, leading the Rebels on FIVE consecutive TD drives. Georgia finally stopped him cold in the 4th quarter, but those first three quarters might’ve been the best stretch any player has put together all season.
Ole Miss couldn’t get 1,300‑yard RB Kewan Lacy going in the first meeting (12 carries, 31 yards), and the Georgia run defense has only gotten better since then — 79 YPG (#4) — and they’ve allowed an absurd 32 (!!) rushing yards per game over their last four. Chambliss will almost certainly need to have a big day through the air and pick up several first downs with his legs if the Rebels are gonna hang around.
That’s not impossible given the weaponry they have at WR/TE, including WR Harrison Wallace (738 yards, 3 TD) and freakshow TE Dae’Quan Wright (553 yards, 4 TD). Worth noting: Georgia’s pass rush is starting to heat up (12 sacks over the last five games), and they allowed a mere 209 yards vs Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, 250 vs Georgia Tech (#13 offense), and 274 vs Texas.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Of course, the big story in this game is how new Ole Miss HC Pete Golding will fare in a head‑to‑head matchup with the great Kirby Smart now that Lane Kiffin has bolted for LSU. Smart gets the best of almost everyone, but it’ll be fascinating to see how Golding handles his first shot on the big stage.
Georgia will be looking to put on a better performance than last year, when they were taken down in the SUGAR BOWL by Notre Dame (L 23–10).
Georgia is +0.93 in net YPP margin vs the #13 (!) schedule. Their most notable wins have come against Texas (H), ROLL TIDE (N), Ole Miss (H), and Tennessee (A).
Ole Miss is +1.43 in net YPP margin vs the #41 schedule. They’ve certainly played a softer set of opponents, and their premier win came against…LSU (H)?
Summary
Georgia will be able to have a lot of success vs Ole Miss defense, and their stop unit looks poised to pick up where they left off at the end of their last meeting with the Rebels. Kirby Smart is deadly when given extra time to prepare, and the Dawgs should be plenty motivated after the egg they laid in last year’s Sugar Bowl.
Conclusion
Holding pattern for now.
The consensus is currently flickering between -6 -115 and -6.5 -110.
We’ll monitor the market and see if -6 becomes more widely available, and will have something on this game by 3pm on January 1st.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.