posted December 29
Cheez-It Bowl – Texas vs Michigan
The Game
Break out the highly‑nutritional Cheez‑Its and find a good seat as the Texas Longhorns tangle with the Michigan Wolverines down in Orlando.
Michigan (9–3) fans are probably disappointed with how the season ended up, but the reality is they lost to a pair of CFP teams (Ohio State, Oklahoma) and to a very good USC squad on the road.
Texas (9–3) entered the 2025 season with YUUUUGE expectations, and whilst 9–3 isn’t a disaster, that brutal loss at Florida cost them a trip to the CFP. Their other two defeats came on the road at the hands of THE Ohio State University and Georgia.
There’s a lot of missing star power in this game but we’ll do our best to navigate the situation.
The Details
Texas -7 Michigan (48.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas -7.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas 27.75 Michigan 20.75
Texas offense vs Michigan defense
The Longhorns were very inconsistent on offense this year as your boy Arch Manning got off to a slow start, but he did get much better in the second half of the season (24–7 TD‑to‑INT). However, the main reason for Texas’ struggles was a putrid rushing attack (#100) that couldn’t get anything going despite having a very talented group of RBs. Texas’ top THREE RBs are in the transfer portal, so the RB situation looks grim unless one of those guys decides to suit up, or the depth pieces suddenly shine under the bright lights.
Manning is going to play in this game, and that’s huge for Texas. He’s got a deep set of WRs to work with, including the dangerous Ryan Wingo (770 yards, 7 TD).
Michigan has been stingy on defense (19 PPG, #16 FBS), stout vs the run (#14), and decent vs the pass (#43 pass‑efficiency D). It’s important to note that the Wolverines will be missing a pair of defensive standouts: DE Derrick Moore (10 sacks) and LB Jaishawn Barham.
Michigan offense vs Texas defense
Michigan true freshman QB Bryce Underwood had his ups and downs during the regular season (61%, 9–6 TD‑to‑INT, 323 rush yards, 5 TD), and he struggled to do damage through the air. The WR/TE group is limited, but nine TD passes still feels a bit light. Only two (!) Michigan players have more than 220 receiving yards, but at least both of those doods will be available in this event (WRs Andrew Marsh and Donoven McCulley).
The Wolverines rely heavily on the rushing attack, but the status of their top two RBs is unknown as we approach press time. Jordan Marshall (932 yards, 10 TD) ended the season a bit hobbled, and the explosive Justice Haynes (857 yards, 7.1 YPC, 10 TD) hasn’t played since the October win at Michigan State.
Thankfully for Michigan, Texas will be missing a ton of starters in this game, including several major defensive contributors such as LB Anthony Hill Jr, CB Malik Muhammad, and S Michael Taaffe. That makes it difficult to assess how Texas’ stop unit (19.8 PPG, #25) will fare in this game.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Michigan will be rolling with interim HC Biff Poggi, and that gives Texas a major gameday edge.
The Wolverines have won three straight bowl games.
Texas HC Steve Sarkisian is 4–5 in bowl games overall (2–3 with the Longhorns).
Michigan is +1.52 in net YPP margin vs the #27 schedule. The Wolverines have beaten five bowl teams, with their most notable win coming at home vs Washington.
Texas is +0.93 in net YPP margin vs the #16 list of assignments. The Longhorns have taken down four bowl teams, including Vanderbilt (H) and Oklahoma (N).
Both squads have struggled vs the spread this season. Michigan is 4–8 ATS, whilst Texas is 4–7–1 vs Vegas.
Summary
We prefer the Longhorns in this one, as it certainly appears they’ll have a much easier time SCORING the FOOTBALL. We’ll wait on the opt‑out news for a wee bit and go from there.
Conclusion
Holding pattern as per above.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.