CFP – National Championship Game – Miami vs Indiana
posted January 16
The Game
Yes, guy.
The universe is at peace. Nature is in equilibrium. YOUR Miami Hurricanes are in the big game.
There are still far too many fine people afflicted with Miami Hurricanes Derangement Syndrome (MHDS), but we’re confident that this recent run has brought plenty of new fans into the fold. Miami (13–2) went on the road to dispose of Texas A&M, took down mighty Ohio State, and then slithered past an explosive Ole Miss squad to earn a spot in the CFP Championship Game.
The bad news for Miami is that they’re facing the DEATH STAR of college football: the Indiana Hoosiers (15–0), who have steamrolled opponents for most of the season. They’ve outscored the competition by a staggering 639–166 (!) over the year. For those keeping score at home, that’s an average margin of 43–11. Devastation, yo.
Indiana is clearly the best team in college football. The question now is whether Miami can find a way to keep this game competitive—and maybe even give themselves a chance to win it in the fourth quarter.
The Details
Indiana -8.5 Miami (47.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Indiana -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Indiana 28 Miami 19.5
Indiana offense vs Miami defense
The Hoosiers continue to move like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE behind Heisman Trophy–winning QB Fernando Mendoza (73%, 41–6 TD/INT), who has thrown more touchdown passes during the CFP (8) than incompletions (5)**. The Hoosiers boast a fantastic RB duo in Roman Hemby (1,060 yards, 7 TD) and Kaelon Black (961 yards, 10 TD), along with a special WR triumvirate (Cooper Jr., Sarratt, Becker) that’s going to provide a stern test for an excellent Miami stop unit. The Hurricanes rank #11 in total defense (293 YPG) and #5 in scoring defense (14 PPG). The Canes specialize in stuffing the run (#6, 86 YPG) and achieving PENETRATION (47 sacks, #1 FBS). On the rare occasions when Indiana’s offense has sputtered just a wee bit (at Oregon, at Iowa, at Penn State, vs. Ohio State), they averaged just 110 rushing yards per game, forcing Mendoza to actually work for first downs.
** Fact check: Believe it.
Indiana is obviously going to have success on offense, but we don’t believe they’ll be able to slice through Miami like a HOT KNIFE through BUTTER. Exhibit A: Miami might have the best defensive line in college football, featuring NFL-ready specimens like Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. Exhibit B: Indiana hasn’t exactly moved at will in the Big Ten Championship Game or the CFP. They put up 340 yards vs. Ohio State, 407 vs. the CORPSE of Alabama, and 362 vs. the Ducks.
Miami offense vs Indiana defense
The Miami offense was a methodical operation in its first two CFP wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State, leaning on the ground game and playing it safe, knowing a strong defense had their back. They dominated time of possession against Ole Miss (41 minutes!) and were an impossibly efficient 13/21 combined on 3rd and 4th down. The problem? They couldn’t put the game away, and Ole Miss woke up in the second half and took the lead. Miami was then forced to unleash the THROW GAME in a drive for the ages under QB Carson Beck, ultimately sneaking out of town with a win.
The Hurricanes have an elite offensive line with a considerable size advantage over the Indiana front, so RBs Mark Fletcher and CharMar Brown will need to continue their excellent play. However, that alone won’t win this game. Beck is going to have to make plays through the air, and the good news is that he’s got one of the most dangerous players in college football in WR Malachi Toney (99 receptions, 1,089 yards, 9 TD), who had his CFP breakout performance against Ole Miss. WR Keelan Marion had a big game vs. the Rebels, and WR CJ Daniels is a reliable option, but nothing the Hoosiers’ defense can’t handle.
Indiana also brings an elite defense to the table, ranking #4 nationally in total defense (261 YPG) and #2 in scoring defense (11 PPG). The Hoosiers can PENETRATE (45 sacks, #2) and are easily the most disciplined, assignment‑sound stop unit on the planet. And their secret sauce? Try 29 takeaways (#2) and a ridiculous +21 turnover margin. If Miami turns the ball over more than once, our TOP SECRET game model predicts a blowout win for Indiana. In fact, the Hoosiers could win by double digits without forcing a turnover.
The point is simple: Miami cannot make mistakes and expect to win. That includes avoiding the penalty bug that bit them vs. Ole Miss. They didn’t commit a single penalty (!) against Ohio State, so it’s absolutely within them to play a clean game—especially with the way Carson Beck is seeing the field right now.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Miami is playing this game on its home field, and whilst Indiana will likely have more fans in the building, it certainly doesn’t hurt the Hurricanes to be in familiar surroundings. We’ll let the power‑ratings gurus fight to the fifth decimal place over how much home field is worth in this BAD BOY, but we can confidently say it’s worth more than zero.
Indiana is a very impressive 10–5 ATS and has covered in four straight games. Miami is also 10–5 against the number, and the Hurricanes have won all three games in which they’ve been the underdog (Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Ohio State).
For those who like to compare common opponents, both teams recently faced Ohio State on a neutral field. Indiana beat the Buckeyes 13–10, won the yardage battle 340–322, and held a 5.96 to 5.75 edge in YPP. Miami defeated Ohio State 24–14, lost the yardage battle 332–291, and dropped the YPP duel 5.63 to 4.62.
Summary
Miami has a good shot to hang around in this game thanks to a phenomenal OL and DL, a strong rushing attack, and a veteran QB. Indiana is the much better team with one of the best head coaches in the country, but the Hurricanes’ staff has also done an excellent job this season—particularly DC Corey Hetherman. Turnovers are always critical in determining college football outcomes, but it’s especially true here. Indiana will absolutely massacre you if they can force a few turnovers.
We’ve got the fair number at -7 and will take a stab with the underdog.
Conclusion
Lean – Miami +8.5
Consensus is +8.5. You can find a rogue +9. If you prefer Indiana, we’ve seen as low at -7.5 out there. Shop around.
Posted 9:45am Jan 16.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.