Week 2 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week.
Purdue -4.5 Ohio (56)………..MEGALOCKS line – Purdue -5
Vegas Implied Score – Purdue 30.25 Ohio 25.75
This should be a yuuuuge drop in class for YOUR Purdue Boilermakers after giving Louisville a good battle last week. They had the lead in the 4th Q but could not withstand the DEVASTATING Lamar Jackson in a 35-28 loss. The schedule is very tough in the first half of the season so this falls under the close-to-must-win category. Purdue will still be utilizing the QB rotation this week as David Blough continued with his INTERCEPTIONITIS vs the Cards. Last season’s leading rusher M Jones is still out and the D yielded 524 Y last week. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Ohio banged Hampton 59-cack in a tune-up for their FBS schedule. It’s hard to take away much from that game but it is always good to see a team look sharp in week one no matter who they are playing. Ask UNLV about that.
Some mostly meaningless tidbits…..Ohio is 0-7 all time vs P….Ohio is 5-1 L6 as a road dog….Purdue has now lost 8 straight games dating back to 2016.
Quick Take: Game looks to be lined pretty well. Ohio is really scrappy and will fight you for four quarters. Best play for small potatoes may be the over 56. Will be watching but not dipping into the pocket for this one.
Oklahoma St -28 South Alabama (66)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -24
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 47 South Alabama 19
There are two pretty strong cases to be made on this one. That leaves us …..?
Oklahoma St just finished destroying a really good Tulsa team 59-24 while rushing and passing for over 300+ yards. And long-time MEGALOCKS SUPER PREMIUM members know that we have a MAN CRUSH on HC Mike Gundy. All he does is put a really good team on the field almost every year and cover the spread. Ole Miss just lit up the Jaguars for over 400 yards passing. On the other hand, South Alabama looked decent against Ole Miss overall, staying within the number and outrushing the Rebels 170-102. They have also pulled a big upset in each of the past two seasons (Miss St, SD St). The Pokes have Pitt on deck.
Quick Take: No official play on this one. We do lean towards the Jaguars at any number 27+ for small potatoes.
Alabama -44 Fresno St (54)………..MEGALOCKS line – Alabama -41
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 49 Fresno St 5
ROLL TIDE gets a bit (!) of a breather this week after their big win over Florida St (a 900 STAR MEGALOCKS LATE PHONE RELEASE STEAMER) as they take on the rebuilding Fresno St Bulldogs. There had to be a bit of a physical and mental toll taken even in victory, and while ROLL TIDE is deeper than the Pacific Ocean, there are several banged up LBs. We are not saying that will matter this week BUT when you are laying 44 points the little things can mean the difference. The back-ups probably get more time and the intensity cannot possibly be the same as it was during week 1. Fresno St had only one win last season and that was against the JUGGERNAUT Sacramento St Hornets. They started off this campaign with another win over an FCS foe (Incarnate Word, yo). We think HC Jeff Tedford will get this team competitive quicker than most people think. Obviously playing ROLL TIDE is not fun.
Quick Take: No official play yet. Would lean to Fresno catching 42 or more for small potatoes if you really needed to play the game for some reason. Fresno TT over seems like a good punt. Overall it seems like a lot to ask ROLL TIDE to just completely destroy someone in a game that will be in hand early. Especially off the Florida St game.
Army -16.5 Buffalo (49)………MEGALOCKS line – Army -17
Vegas Implied Score – Army 32.75 Buffalo 16.25
Yup. You got it. This is the STEEL CAGE REMATCH. Buffalo upset Army last season in OT at home in a game that completely bewildered us. The Bulls started off the 2017 campaign grabbing the money in a road game at Minnesota (lose 17-7…..good teams win – GREAT teams cover) while Army destroyed FCS foe Fordham by a score of 64-6. Get this kids. Army did not complete a pass last week and scored 64 POINTS. haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. <falls off chair>
Don’t underestimate the Bulls because they could start the season 4-1 (!) if they pull another upset. We are also pretty high on their defense and they faced Army last season.
Quick Take: No play. Gun to the head lean under 49. No lower than 48.
Kansas St -36 Charlotte (58)………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -38
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 47 Charlotte 11
This is almost certainly going to be a pounding of epic proportions but can the 49ers hang within the big number ? The Wildcats offense looked pretty sharp vs FCS opponent C Arkansas as they ran for 186 yards whilst throwing for 333. Our boy Jesse Ertz had 4 TD passes. They only held the ball for 23 min (?) but that was partly a function of them scoring really fast with big passing plays. The defense yielded 421 yards. Not great. Meanwhile Charlotte fell to the JUGGERNAUT E Michigan Eagles in a 88 STAR MEGALOCKS MAX UNIT BOMB AWARD WINNING STEAMER but really killed themselves with penalties. We are ashamed we listened to the entire game on the radio. The QB Hassan Klugh is very dangerous but does not have much of a supporting cast. The defense held up better than we thought they would. Still feels like one of the worst spots ever for Charlotte.
Quick Take: No official play. Would play small potatoes on K St if the 35 pops up again. No higher.
South Florida -17 Connecticut (66)………MEGALOCKS line – South Florida -14
Vegas Implied Score – South Florida 41.5 Connecticut 24.5
MUGA. Make UConn great again.
We miss the old days when you could count on a solid defense and running game, not to mention of course, cheating refs with BIG STACKS riding on the Huskies. HC Edsall is back and maybe (?) he can turn it around. Connecticut is just 5-15-1 ATS L21 at home and are coming off a less than impressive win over Holy Cross in which they trailed 20-7 at the half. Were they really in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl ? We need more time to see what this team is all about. Meanwhile Charlie Strong is doing another Charlie Strong impression. They got down 16-0 to San Jose St before waking up. Last week they trailed Stony Brook at the half. The Bulls only managed to rack up 339 yards offense.
Quick Take: Those who wager on this game have our respect. It takes some serious 10 PIN BOWLING BALLS to hang your hat on either of these teams at this point in the season. Make no mistake. Even if you win your wager you will regret torturing yourself. UConn games are 19-7 L26 to the under so taking that angle is a consideration. 66 seems high. Godspeed.
West Virginia -24 East Carolina (66)……..MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -27
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 45 East Carolina 21
This is a bit of a tricky one. The Mountaineers lost a close one to Virginia Tech 31-24 in a really fun game (a 5000 star MEGALOCKS LATE PHONE RELEASE MIDGET BANGER) but looked impressive throughout putting up almost 600 (!) yards of offense. Meanwhile East Carolina struggled with FCS opponent James Madison and got SPANKED 34-14 while yielding over 600 yards of offense. There is no way that anyone could reasonably make a case for E Carolina other than WV is coming off a hard fought game (letdown) and may sleepwalk though some of the game. We have a negative view on EC overall this season and would be surprised to see them hang within 20 points.
Quick Take: No official play. Strong lean to WV. Not laying double digits in a week two game in which the favorite is coming off an almost 4-hour bloodbath struggle where bodies were scattered randomly for miles during and after the game. Small potatoes only if you must.
Colorado 36 Texas St (58)……..MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -37
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 47 Texas St 11
The Buffs are coming off a nice rivalry win over JUGGERNAUT Colorado St and get to take things down a notch this week. They were outgained by the Rams and were the beneficiary of some interesting officiating calls from what our PAC 12 OFFICIATING INSIDERS told us. They also have a number of banged up bodies. We expect to see a lot of the depth on the roster getting snaps this week. HC Everett Withers continues the building process at Texas St. They struggled to get past Houston Baptist last week. FWIW – ex Miss St QB Damian Williams looked decent.
Quick Take: Probably best to stay away. The Vegas projected score feels about right to us.
Wisconsin -31.5 Florida Atlantic (58.5)……..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -28
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 45 Florida Atlantic 13.5
Yes, guy. The Badgers started slow last week but then unleashed their FISTS OF FURY pounding Utah St 59-10. Wow. They WERE down 10-0. GAME IS OVER GUY was counting his money with the imaginary Utah St ticket just to upset people on message boards. Oops. Wisconsin really got rolling and rushed for 234 yards whilst throwing for 244. It seems to us they should be able to score as many points as they want in this one. Here is the tricky part. FAU QB Daniel Parr looked pretty good last week (281 yards passing) and their high-tempo offense is almost certainly going to hit a handful of big plays. Will that be enough to stay with the number ? Hard to say. We do know that the Badgers are banged up on defense.
Quick Take: Tough call. No official play on this one but gun to the head would put one small potato on FAU at 31 or better and another small potato on the over 58.5. That’s if you REALLY need to get down.
Florida St -34 ULM (53)……..MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -31
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 43.5 ULM 9.5
Time to refocus. The Seminoles move on without starting QB Deondre Francois who we hope returns to dominate next season ! Enter true freshman QB James Blackman who will get some reps before the showdown with Miami next week. The defense looked fantastic vs ROLL TIDE and we expect a suffocating performance against ULM. The Warhawks are coming off a fine performance in which they outgained (!) Memphis on the road. The weather was a bit dicey BUT that did not seem to bother ULM as they managed to pick up almost 300Y passing. Expect 2 QBs again.
Quick Take: This is a horrible sandwich spot for the Seminoles. Here is the thing, tho. Everyone will be taking their level of play up a notch to help out the new QB. There is no doubt about that. So we have DUELING INTANGIBLES. Hmm. Gonna stay clear of this one since we could see it 28-0 at half or 14-10.
Missouri -2.5 South Carolina (71.5)……..MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -3
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 37 South Carolina 34.5
Do NOT leave the room unless there is a commercial. There promises to be a lot of passing yards and entertainment in this SEC battle. The Gamecocks got off to a good start with an upset win over NC State in which they were outgained by a significant margin. They also allowed approximately 80,000 passing yards and that does not bode well when you have to face Missouri the following week. Drew Lock threw 7 TDs in a blowout win over FCS foe Missouri St last week and they also ran for almost 300 yards in their spare time. Tune up, yo. We still worry about the Missouri defense a LOT and are not ready to just pencil in a win. SC QB Jake Bentley is quickly emerging as a really good QB and figures to have success on Saturday. The teams have split the past two meetings.
Quick Take: The over seems like the LOCK of the MILLENNIUM but 71.5 is just too many points for our liking. Was hoping for something in the mid-60s but we knew that would not happen after Mizzou scored over 70 last week. Lean to Missouri at -3 or less based on the spot (SC off big win) but just for small potatoes. We just cannot justify a full play until we see how the Tigers fare on defense against a decent team.
Michigan St -7 Western Michigan (49)……..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -6
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 28 Western Michigan 21
The Spartans 2017 REDEMPTION TOUR enters phase two as they face Western Michigan on Saturday. Sparty had an easy tune up against Bowling Green in week one and had over 200 yards rushing and passing. They were (-2) in turnovers and will have to clean things up vs a team that is SCRAPPY even without MR ROW THE BOAT as head ball coach. We still worry a bit about the overall experience level and talent level on Michigan St. We need to see at least one more effort before we consider a play on them. They are going to fine at QB in our opinion. Meanwhile the Broncos REALLY surprised us with their showing on the road against USC as they were tied up in the 3rd quarter and easily covered the spread. The running game worked well vs USC but we are still unsure about exactly what the Broncos have at QB.
Quick Take: Do not know enough about either team to pounce. It feels like Michigan St would be a good team to use in a ML parlay with another fav or two. It’s hard to imagine a young MAC QB beating Michigan St on the road. We are gonna stay clear of this one but expect a Sparty win.
Kansas -5.5 Central Michigan (57.5)……..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -4
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 31.5 Central Michigan 26
And so we get tested again. We have jumped out of the foxhole too soon with Kansas before and paid the price. We are very confident that the Jayhawks will be a lot better this season but we do not have much to go on yet in terms of FACTS. Kansas looked pretty good last week but that was against FCS foe SE Missouri. We DO like the potential of QB Peyton Bender (364 yards passing last week) and feel they will be better than expected on the OL and DL. Keep in mind, however, that this team allowed 37 points per game last season and was (-14) in turnover margin. Central Michigan needed THREE OT to put away Rhode Island (?) last week but did hold a 499-392 yardage edge while bagging SIX interceptions. QB Shane Morris (yes, THAT Shane Morris) looked good as did the running game.
Quick Take: This is a really bad situational spot for the Chips coming off a 3-OT game and having the travel out to Kansas. Let’s not forget though that KU has only won TWO games in the past TWO seasons combined and still need to prove they can win tight games against decent teams. We like the Jayhawks to come out on top but Central Michigan is tougher than a $3 steak and are not a team we enjoy fading. Value seems to be with them as well. Passing on this one.
Arizona St -3 San Diego St (55)……..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -1
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 29 San Diego St 26
This is a very tricky game with multiple LAYERS OF COMPLEXITY…..Arizona St beat EMERGING POTENTIAL JUGGERNAUT New Mexico St 37-31 in week 1 but were outgained 549-400 (!) while only gaining 79 rushing yards vs the LEGENDARY Aggies’ run D….San Diego St disposed of FCS foe UC Davis 38-17 and had nice 276/237 balance on offense.
Quick Take: Definitely a strong lean to SD St at +3 or better. The issue we have is that SD St is not as deadly in non-conference match-ups during the regular season. It’s just the way it is, yo. We also think Arizona St is going to be better this season even though their performance in the first game did not give us much confidence. Small potatoes SD St +3 or better or ML action. We also lean to the over.