Purdue Boilermakers 2019 College Football Preview

College Football Predictions –  Purdue Boilermakers 2019 College Football Preview

2018 Recap

Record – 6-7

ATS – 6-7

Quite the mixed bag, yo.

The Boilermakers provided a lot of highs and lows for their fans last year. ACT ONE. Lose the first three games by a combined 8 points. ACT TWO. Win four games in a row with the cherry on the cake being a 49-20 beating of YOUR Ohio St Buckeyes. ACT THREE. Drive people crazy with inconsistency and lose by 40,000 (estimate) to Auburn in the Music City Bowl.

The Big Ten West gets tougher by the day. Does Purdue have a shot to contend for a division crown this year?


2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

West Division – #6

Big 10 – #11


Purdue Boilermakers 2019 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Purdue passing attack put up some fine numbers last season and were 2nd in the Big Ten in passing yards per game (308). The underappreciated David Blough moves on after throwing for over 3,700 yards and 25 TDs. Junior Elijah Sindelar moves into the starting role, and while he does have starting experience, it’s tough to expect him to be as productive as his predecessor. The RB unit is a major concern as they lose a ton of production. DJ Knox and Markell Jones were a fine 1-2 punch that combined for over 1,400 (!) yards and 13 TDs a season ago but they are both gone. Here is some great news. WR Rondale Moore is one of the most electrifying players in the Big Ten and he is just a sophomore. Moore snagged 114 (!) receptions last year which led the FBS by a LOT (Andy Isabella, UMass, 102) and he also rushed for over 200 yards and a pair of TDs in his spare time (10.1 YPC). The offensive line is a bit of a worry given that they only bring back a pair of starters and they allowed 30 sacks LY whilst paving the way for 4.4 YPC.

It feels like the Purdue offense will take a step back and average less than 30 PPG (30.5 LY).

DEFENSE

Yuck. The Boilermakers allowed 453 YPG last year and that was the 2nd worst mark in the Big Ten behind the DUMPSTER FIRE in Champaign, Illinois. Their masterpiece was probably the Music City Bowl in which they allowed 586 yards to Auburn whilst allowing 63 points. For those keeping score at home, Auburn rolled up 56 in the first half (!) and there is zero doubt that they could have approached A COOL HUNDO if they really tried. What do things look like this year?

We are optimistic that improvement is in the cards. Nine starters are back on defense and they appear to have some really nice chess pieces. The entire front-seven returns for duty including their excellent LB Markus Bailey (2nd Team Big Ten) who led the team in tackles (115) (!) whilst picking up 10 TFL a season ago. A solid LB corps adds Ben Holt who did some fine work at Western Kentucky while leading the Hilltoppers in tackles in 2018. They need to get some improvement from the secondary as they yielded 285 passing YPG (last Big Ten) and 62.3% completions (#11 Big Ten). Their fortunes will improve if they can achieve more PENETRATION this season as they only tallied 61 TFL a season ago (#11 Big Ten).

Purdue allowed 20.5 (!) PPG in 2017 and 30.0 last year. We project improvement but don’t see these guys reaching the lofty heights of the 2017 stop unit.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Rondale Moore does a bit of everything including returning punts and kickoffs. That’s a good thing, although he wasn’t explosive on returns last season. Purdue needs to work in a new P,PK combo. Overall, not great news here.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The season starts with three tricky out-of-conference games (at Nevada, Vanderbilt, TCU) and they would do extremely well to get through those contests unscathed. The Big Ten slate is favorable as they have five home dates whilst avoiding Michigan and Ohio St.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing significant to note at this time.

Season Win Total

Over 7 -110

Under 7 -110

MEGALOCKS says:

The number looks about right. There are areas of concern on the roster but those are offset somewhat by the manageable schedule.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The official mascot of Purdue University is The Boilermaker Special which resembles a Victorian-era railroad locomotive.

Purdue’s last Big Ten title came back in 2000 when they shared the honor with Northwestern.


MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral

Hmm. The defense is going to take a step forward, but the offense is almost certainly going to be less potent than last year’s version. And what about the special teams? The Big Ten West is getting very competitive and it feels like Purdue is going to have their hands full on most occasions.

HC Jeff Brohm has exceeded market expectations in his first two years in West Lafayette posting a record of 15-11 vs the Vegas number. We will give him the benefit of the doubt this season and expect the Boilermakers to get back to a bowl game whilst having ups and downs vs the point spread.


Want more Purdue football ?

WEBSITE

http://www.purduesports.com/sports/m-footbl/pur-m-footbl-body.html

FORUM

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http://purdue.247sports.com/Board/Purdue-Boilermakers-Message-Board-Forum-59450

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NEWS

http://www.hammerandrails.com/

http://www.indystar.com/sports/boilers/

http://www.jconline.com/sports/boilermakers/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2509/purdue-boilermakers

TWITTER

Hashtag – #BoilerUp

Accounts to follow

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Music City Bowl – Purdue vs Auburn – College Football Predictions

Music City Bowl – Purdue vs Auburn

The Game

Big Ten vs SEC, baby!

Purdue started out the campaign with three close losses by a combined eight (!) points and then rattled off a 6-3 stretch to finish at .500 for the regular season. The best news was probably the realization that HC Jeff Brohm was NOT leaving and would be staying in West Lafayette for the foreseeable future. The Tigers had a disappointing year that included five (!) losses but keep in mind that they played a really tough schedule. They haven’t been the same since getting smacked by UCF in last year’s Peach Bowl but MAYBE this is the spot they turn the momentum around.

The Details

Auburn -3 Purdue (55.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Auburn -3

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Auburn 29.25 Purdue 26.25

The Match-Up:

Auburn offense vs Purdue defense

The Tigers’ offense has been struggling all season and ONE stat shines a light on everything. Auburn is dead LAST in the SEC in plays of 20+ yards. Last season they were #3. The QB play has been inconsistent. The OL has been sketchy. They just don’t have the typical “Auburn” playmakers at RB and WR. QB Jarrett Stidham has only tossed 13 TDs in 348 attempts (5 INT) and the top two RBs (Whitlow, Martin) average just 5.4 and 4.3 YPC respectively. #1 WR Ryan Davis is averaging a paltry 8.2 (!) yards per catch. The good news? Purdue’s D has been soft this season (#103 overall) and will provide ample opportunity for the Auburn offense to move the ball. The Tigers will have to find a way to be better on 3rd down (#102 FBS) because Purdue has been pretty good in that regard in 2018 (#27 FBS). The implied team total of 29.25 seems about right to us. It’s hard to imagine the Auburn offense going nuts in this contest.

Purdue offense vs Auburn defense

QB David Blough has had a fine campaign so far statistically (3,521, 25-8 TD to INT) and certainly meets the EYE TEST in terms of accuracy and leadership. AND Auburn better be ready for some deep shots because Blough can be devastating when MATRICULATING down the field on long pass attempts. WR/Slash Rondale Moore is a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball (1,164, 12 TD) and overall the Boilermakers have a deep WR and TE group. The 1-2 punch at RB (DJ Knox, Markell Jones) has combined for over 1,300 yards and 13 TDs but will be facing a really good Auburn front-seven (#40 FBS rushing D) that can stuff the run and also get impressive PENETRATION (#3 SEC sacks and #3 TFL). We expect to see Purdue hit a small handful of big plays but struggle to move the ball consistently from drive to drive.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Both teams have fairly impressive NOTCHES IN THE BELT….Purdue destroyed Ohio St 49-20 and just might have kept them out of the College Football Playoff (?) whilst Auburn can boast victories over Washington and Texas A&M….Auburn HC Gus Malzahn is 1-4 SU in bowl games with the only victory coming over Memphis in the memorable 2015 Birmingham Bowl.

Summary

This is a tough game to get a handle upon. Purdue has the much better offense but Auburn boasts the stronger defense. We would like to think that Auburn should be plenty motivated to do some damage BUT it’s hard to trust your pal Gus Malzahn in bowl games. Slight lean to the dog but we worry about the SHOCK AND AWE potential of the Auburn stop unit vs the Boilers’ offense.

Conclusion

Official play: None

Side: Slight lean to Purdue.

Total: Slight lean to the under.

As always:

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >

‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.

Purdue Boilermakers 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Purdue Boilermakers 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 9-4

Yes, guy.

Purdue looked like they were going to miss out on a bowl game before they decided to BOILER UP and win their final two games to finish the regular season at 6-6. They then proceeded to beat Arizona in the Foster Farms bowl and finish with a winning record. Year one of the Jeff Brohm era has to be considered a rousing success since it was Purdue’s first winning season since 2011 (7-6). What can they do for an encore?


2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

West Division – #4

Big 10 – #8


Purdue Boilermakers 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

Purdue has two capable signal callers to take the reins but there are injury concerns with both men. Elijah Sindelar and David Blough combined for 27 TDs and just 11 INT in 2017, but each of them suffered a significant injury last year. Either way, we are certain that HC Brohm can get good results from the QB position. The running game looks rock solid on paper with their top-5 RBs from 2017 all returning for duty. Markell Jones and DJ Knox combined for over 1,100 yards last year and both men averaged 5+ yards per carry. The offensive line returns four starters and should lead the way for improved production (152, 4.4 LY). It’s not unthinkable to see Purdue approach 200 yards per game on the ground. The WR group loses their top two and will benefit greatly if a star can emerge this season AND if the OL can do a better job in pass protection (#11 Big 10 sacks allowed per game).

Purdue will almost certainly have their best output since 2012 when they averaged 28.7 PPG, and it would not shock us to see them exceed 30 PPG. It feels like they will be too much for the weaker defenses on their schedule but it remains to be seen how effective they can be vs the real tough Big 10 stop units.

DEFENSE

Wow. Purdue’s defense had an incredible transformation in 2017 allowing just 20.5 PPG after getting roasted for 38.3 (!) PPG in 2016. They were particularly stingy against the run (#29 FBS) yielding a mere 3.5 yards per attempt. It will be interesting to see how the defense will do this year with so many solid performers from the 2017 unit no longer with the team (4 returning starters). In particular, we worry about the run defense that was so solid a year ago but has to reload almost the entire starting DL. Last campaign’s leading tackler MLB Ja’Whaun Bentley departs and he led the team in tackles whilst compiling 11.5 TFL a season ago. Oh, and they also lose their two starting corners.

Purdue allowed 30+ PPG in five straight seasons before their excellent performance last year. We are not going to call for a return to the 30-land, but it seems reasonable to expect a TD or so worse in terms of points per game allowed.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Purdue will need to improve in the return department as they averaged a paltry 1.4 (!) yards per punt return (last Big 10) and 17.0 yards per KO return (hey, last Big 10). They should be fine at PK and P.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The year starts off with four consecutive home games and they may get Northwestern without their starting QB in the opener (stay tuned). We do think, however, that three of those four contests may be tougher than expected with Missouri and Boston College also being tough outs. Then they go on the road to Nebraska. You can make the case for a 5-0 or 4-1 start, but also 2-3. The second half of the schedule is pretty difficult. Overall, we only see a pair of layups (Eastern Michigan, at Illinois) so there may be more trouble than you think. The good news is that they avoid back-to-back road games (without a bye week in between).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Boston College (September 22). This will be their fourth straight home game and it comes before Big 10 play opens the following week (at Huskers). They better strap it on because Boston College is going to test that run defense and they are tougher than a $3 steak.

Season Win Total

Over 6 -130

Under 6 +100

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage as we go to press. It’s not a popular opinion, but we can see Purdue being as good as last year (better on offense, worse on defense) and having it not show up in the win-loss record. As noted earlier, the schedule has a couple of early season land mines and is also very challenging over the last six games. If they get to seven wins, it seems to us that it will be because they got off to a really hot start. Possible, sure. We just need more time to think this through.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Purdue’s four conference wins last year exceeded the COMBINED TOTAL of the previous FOUR campaigns (3). Whoa, Nellie.


MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10)          3.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the BOILERMAKERS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.

There is no doubt this is a program on the rise. We are yuuuuge Jeff Brohm fans, but this rebuilding project may have to take a small step back before it takes another step forward. The offense will be productive but it is unclear what we are dealing with on defense with so many new starters. The schedule is also a little more difficult than it first appears.

Our Purdue prognostication (say THAT ten times fast) in 2017 missed the mark big time as we were shocked by how well the defense played. Maybe we just don’t get it? Good things are on the way for Purdue but we forecast a bit of a struggle ATS as they will be the darlings of many AND have to deal with increased expectations.


Want more Purdue football ?

WEBSITE

http://www.purduesports.com/sports/m-footbl/pur-m-footbl-body.html

FORUM

Free

https://purdue.forums.rivals.com/forums/free-board-boilermaker-football.24/

http://purdue.247sports.com/Board/Purdue-Boilermakers-Message-Board-Forum-59450

Restricted

https://purdue.forums.rivals.com/forums/knucklehead-central.22/

NEWS

http://www.hammerandrails.com/

http://www.indystar.com/sports/boilers/

http://www.jconline.com/sports/boilermakers/

TWITTER

Hashtag – #BoilerUp

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/BoilerFootball

Purdue Boilermakers 2016 NCAA Football Preview

Purdue Boilermakers 2016 NCAA Football Preview

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS

Big 10 Conference – West Division

2015 Record – 2-10

ATS – 6-6

2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank

West Division #7

Conference – #13

2015 Recap

Year three of the Darrell Hazell experiment went much like the first two seasons. Poorly. They only defeated one FBS team all season but at least that victory was against a Big 10 team (Nebraska). The offense was inconsistent and the defense was familiarly horrible. Hazell is definitely on the proverbial hot seat with a 6-30 record so far at Purdue. That brings his career win loss record to 22-40.

OFFENSE

QB David Blough was fine in his freshman season. He played exceptionally well in the game vs Nebraska. If Purdue has any shot of making a bowl game in 2016 they need him to step up and be really good. There are some weapons to work with as seven of the top eight in receptions from 2015 are back along with budding star Markell Jones at RB. All he did in his freshman season was rush for 875 yards and 10 TDs.

The only way Purdue has a decent year is if the offensive line is a LOT better than last season. The Boilermakers were ranked 13th in the Big 10 in rushing offense and 13th in sacks allowed. They return three of five starters on the OL and have some nice size so it is not impossible to think that the big boys can improve.

DEFENSE

It was another hot mess in 2015. When you can’t stop either the run or the pass, and you get no pressure on the QB, things are going to go poorly (hot take). We have to put on our optimistic hat for a second and note that Purdue returns 8 starters to the unit so they should theoretically improve this season. However, we are still skeptical they will be able to stop the run or be able to slow down decent passing teams as they are breaking in two new starting cornerbacks.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Reload time. Purdue will be featuring new specialists at PR, KR, and PK. Big time red flags are going up here.

 

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10)          3.0

MEGALOCKS says:

We do not have a handle on the identity they are trying to establish on offense. Apparently they want more of a west coast feel, yet the starting QB is not entirely suited for that style, and that opens up the possibility of a fourth straight season with a mid-season QB change. Great.

Overall, we give the BOILERMAKERS a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season. We will say this. As disgusting as the brand of football has been on the field the past two seasons Purdue has managed to go 13-11 against the number including 7-2 as a road underdog. They have made a habit the last two seasons of covering large numbers on the road so maybe you can look to them to play a similar role in 2016. Overall, we have very little confidence in the coaching staff and while the defense is more experienced, we think that they will still find a way to get shredded way too often. We will reassess but right now would only consider them for play as significant underdogs ATS.

Want more Purdue football?

Website     

http://www.purduesports.com/sports/m-footbl/pur-m-footbl-body.html

Forum

https://purdue.forums.rivals.com/forums/free-board-boilermaker-football.24/

http://purdue.247sports.com/Board/Purdue-Boilermakers-Message-Board-Forum-59450

http://www.scout.com/college/purdue/forums/2821-ross-ade-stadium

News  

http://www.hammerandrails.com/

http://www.indystar.com/sports/boilers/

http://bleacherreport.com/purdue-football

http://www.news-sentinel.com/sports/pu/

Twitter   

https://twitter.com/BoilerFootball                    @BoilerFootball

https://twitter.com/nbairdjc                               @nbairdjc                         Nathan Baird