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Cincinnati Bearcats 2016 NCAA Football Preview
CINCINNATI BEARCATS
American Athletic Conference – East Division
2015 Record – 7-6
ATS – 6-7
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
East Division #2
Conference #3
2015 Recap
The downswing in the win column continued last season as the Bearcats finished with a 7-6 record after getting smashed by San Diego St in their bowl game. In hindsight, it was probably a 50 million star lock that a Tuberville-coached team would lay an egg in a lower-tier bowl game in Hawaii. The last five seasons Cincinnati has finished with 10,10,9,9 and 7 wins. People that believe in patterns will have them penciled in for another 7-win season.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
It takes some trying to have two QBs throw 11 interceptions in the same season but that is exactly what Gunner Kiel and Hayden Moore did last year. Kiel is one of those QBs that is maddening to watch because he can look so good and then not so good. He appears to have the edge right now in camp for the starting job but HC Tuberville has not made an official announcement. Hayden Moore was a freshman last season and does show promise.
The Bearcats feature a very nice 1-2 punch at RB. What is really interesting is that the Bearcats’ leading rusher from 2015 is gone but they still have two players returning who ran for over 700 yards (Mike Boone, Tion Green). The offensive line looks really good so the Bearcats should be able to really punish soft run defenses.
Where did all the WRs go ? Nate Cole is the leading returning receiver from the 2015 squad and he only had 19 catches last year. Tshumbi Johnson injured his foot and will be out for at least the first couple of weeks. Time will tell but this group looks raw and the transfers will have to step up. In all likelihood, inexperience at WR is going to mean another year of interceptions galore if they throw the ball over 500 times again.
DEFENSE
The defense has allowed more points than the previous season in all three years of the Tuberville era. That is one trend we feel confident in saying will end this year. Eight starters return on defense and they look pretty good at every level especially in the secondary. We had to triple check the stats but it is actually true that the Bearcats only had 13 sacks last year (124th FBS in sacks per game). For the defense to truly improve they need to find a pass rusher or two.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game was great last year and both the PK and punter return. Andrew Gantz was 21/27 in FGs with three misses coming from 50+ yards. The kickoff returners were very average and last season’s #1 punt returner Shaq Washington is gone. The Bearcats may use RB Mike Boone in the return game which may (better production) or may not (increased injury risk) work out.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Tommy Tuberville is 25-14 at Cincinnati, and while that record in and of itself is not a disaster, the program seems to be stalling at best and regressing at worst. It seems like a shame because they typically have a lot of talent to work with and boast a very nice home-field advantage (15-3 last three seasons).
Overall, we give the BEARCATS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season. The Bearcats actually graded out fairly well in our power ratings because we favor teams with good running games (check), offensive lines (check) and improving defenses (check ?). Tuberville is 19-19-1 ATS at Cincinnati. As painful as it may be, we will keep the Bearcats in mind when they are catching points.
Want more Cincinnati Bearcats football?
Website
http://www.gobearcats.com/sports/m-footbl/cinn-m-footbl-body.html
Forum
http://www.bearcattalk.com/forumdisplay.php?s=07529cd655fb44185b598bb9bf9b3689&f=9
http://csnbbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=404
http://cincinnati.247sports.com/Board/Cincinnati-Bearcats-Football-Message-Board-Forum-39
News
http://www.cincinnati.com/sports/uc/
http://bleacherreport.com/cincinnati-bearcats-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/teams/cincinnati-bearcats
https://twitter.com/GoBEARCATS @GoBEARCATS
https://twitter.com/bkoch @bkoch Bill Koch
https://twitter.com/ChadBrendel @ChadBrendel Chad Brendel