SMU Mustangs 2016 NCAA Football Preview

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SMU MUSTANGS

American Athletic Conference – West Division

2015 Record – 2-10

ATS – 5-7

2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank

West Division #5

Conference #9 (tie)

2015 Recap

Year one of the Chad Morris era was a bumpy ride but you could see the potential at times. They were a lot stronger in the first part of games and then seemed to get worn down in the later stages. They only managed wins over North Texas and Tulane but there were no real expectations in terms of wins and losses last season. They just needed to get their feet wet.

2016 Preview

OFFENSE

SMU is going to play fast and be very productive this season. #PonyUpTempo is upon us and we cannot wait to see what Chad Morris can do with these guys in 2016. QB Matt Davis returns for his senior season and he looked fantastic at times last season passing for 16 TDs and rushing for another 10 scores. He also made some mistakes. There are numerous dangerous players around him which should make for some fun games to watch.

The RB unit looks very deep and SMU should have no problem increasing their rushing totals this season. They had 165 yards rushing per game in 2015 and we can easily see them approaching 200 this year. Of course the offensive line has to come together but they do return three starters and it is the 2nd year under Morris’ scheme. They were dead last in the AAC in sacks allowed per game (125th FBS) and that has to improve.

JUGGERNAUT ALERT – WR Courtland Sutton had a fantastic freshman season garnering 2nd Team AAC honors while tallying 862 yards receiving and 9 TDs at 17.6 yards a pop. Sutton is listed at 6-4 224 and is a match-up nightmare for opposing secondaries. We are really excited to see what kind of numbers he can put up in year two of this offense.

DEFENSE

It was a hot mess. They knew it would be a struggle but we are not sure anyone expected they would give up 46 points per game including 55+ in three of their final four contests. They only managed to pick up 16 sacks all season.

It is still going to be a struggle but over time they will assemble more talent and figure out how to play better in DC Van Malone’s scheme. DL Justin Lawler is a fine player and was the team leader in sacks and tackles last season. The secondary returns three starters and only allowed 59% completions last season while picking off 10 passes. Hey, that wasn’t bad. They will probably make small strides forward this season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Mustangs break in a new PK and punter this season. They were ranked 121st in punt return average in 2015 but the kickoff return unit was pretty good. We see some struggles ahead this season in the kicking game.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0

MEGALOCKS says:

If you like high-scoring games, get your popcorn. The offense will be lightning-fast and potent while the defense will likely struggle once again. SMU faces Baylor and TCU in September before the conference schedule starts. In general, the schedule is nastier than you might think.

Overall, we give the MUSTANGS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season. We typically steer clear of teams with potentially awful defenses, but we are so intrigued by the HC and the momentum building up within the program, that we have to take a closer look. The offense should be eye-popping and any improvement on defense will show up in the win column as well as their point-spread record. Our only caveat with this rating is that we have a gut feeling they will be a popular team (seriously) for people to back because everyone and their uncle loves a high-flying offense. Keep them in mind but do not go overboard. As always, demand value.

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http://bleacherreport.com/smu-mustangs-football

http://smumustangs.com/sports/2016/6/17/football-in-the-news.aspx?id=864

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