East Carolina Pirates 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – East Carolina Pirates 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record –3-9

2016 ATS – 3-8-1

Well, if you left your couch to go to the fridge when the Pirates were 2-0 and coming off a yuuuuge win over NC State, you were probably shocked when you came back and they were suddenly 2-6. They finished at 3-9 in Scottie Montgomery’s first season in Greenville, and despite putting up a lot of passing yards (#6 FBS), they really struggled on defense and made too many mistakes (-16 turnover margin). Hence the TRAIN WRECK after the hot start.

The Pirates are not too far removed from a nice 3-year stretch of 8+ wins (2012-2014) and there is little doubt they will be a significant conference player in the near future. Are they ready to make the leap in 2017 ?

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

East Division – #6

American Athletic Conference – To be determined

OFFENSE

The Pirates appear to have two good options at QB. Gardner Minshew proved he could MATRICULATE in the passing game when given the opportunity last season, but hold the phones, Duke transfer Thomas Sirk looks healthy and will challenge for the starting role. Sirk is a really dangerous dual threat QB when his Achilles tendons stay in one piece. It will be an interesting battle during fall camp.

The Pirates will be without their #1 rusher (James Summers – 869) and #1 WR from last season (Zay Jones – 2nd Team AA; 1700+ yards; FBS all-time career reception leader) and that is a bit of a concern. The receiving group should be fine as there is proven depth. The RB situation is a bit more sketchy and it may be a RB by committee strategy. They are going to need to be more balanced on offense to have a shot at a bowl appearance. The OL is nice and yuuuuge and returns 3 starters from the 2016 group. However, they do need to replace their excellent C JT Boyd.

JUGGERNAUT ALERT – WR Jimmy Williams is a leading candidate to become the new #1 guy and replace at lot of Zay Jones’ production. In 2016, Williams tied for the team lead in receiving TDs (8) and tallied 818 yards receiving at 18.2 a pop.

DEFENSE

It is not always painfully simple, but in this case, it seems like a no-brainer. Find a way to force more turnovers (8 – DEAD LAST in FBS last season) and get to the QB (8 !? – also DEAD LAST in FBS).

The Pirates move to a 4-2-5 alignment in hopes of turning their defensive fortunes around. Or at least jump-starting some improvement. Only three starters return in the front six and it is unclear if and how they will be able to apply pressure on opposing QBs. Everything starts there, and given that their secondary looks like the strength of the defense, any pressure put on the QB could have a big impact on their overall success. As noted, the secondary looks pretty solid and in particular, they boast some talented CBs and a fine FS in Travon Simmons.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Uh oh. The Pirates break in a new P and PK. They were ranked #125 in punt return average at only 1.8 yards a pop. Wut ? Somehow, that did not put them dead last.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

November 4 – at Connecticut. This will be the 3rd road game in 4 weeks and the Pirates dealt out WOODSHED TREATMENT at home last year beating the Huskies 41-3. #Revenge ?

MEGAmazing Tidbits

We will have to get our MEGALOCKS AAC DEEP INSIDERS working on this one. Has a team ever forced less than 10 turnovers AND recorded less than 10 sacks in a full season ?

East Carolina was outscored 203-96 (!) in their final four games in 2016.

QB Thomas Sirk pops on the scene from Duke where he worked with current East Carolina HC Scottie Montgomery.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the PIRATES a 2.5 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.

ARRRR you scurvy dogs.

It feels like the Pirates might be in for a bit of a rough ride once again. We have a lot of confidence in the passing attack, but as you know, that can only take you so far. They may have trouble maintaining balance on offense if they are frequently behind on the scoreboard. The defense might be a bit better but the schedule is not going to do them any favors. It is going to be a battle to get to 6-wins. We do like HC Montgomery but it seems as though he may need one more year before we see real improvement.

From an ATS standpoint we usually stay clear of teams with great passing attacks and sketchy defenses.

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