College Football Predictions – Houston Cougars 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 9-4
2016 ATS – 4-8-1
Everything looked rosy. Until it didn’t.
Houston started the season by SHOCKING THE WORLD as double digit underdogs and beating the Sooners 33-23 for one of their biggest wins in recent program history. It was almost as if the minute ESPN anointed them at 5-0 as “best team ever?” they lost to Navy and never really recovered. #Coolers. Losses to SMU (wut ?) and Memphis followed. And then they mailed it in for the bowl game getting SMOKED by San Diego St.
Houston fans have to be pumped that a 9-4 season feels like a bit of a disappointment. And they are still stacked with talent. Let’s go !
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #2
American Athletic Conference – To be determined
OFFENSE
The Cougars appear to have a found a fine replacement for the departed Greg Ward. Jr Kyle Allen is the new starting QB and he looked pretty good during his time at Texas A&M. Allen should fit in very nicely and allow Houston to keep scoring a lot of points.
The RB unit underachieved last season but a lot of that was due to injuries. Leading rusher Duke Catalon returns but it is unclear if they have a true star #1 back. Linell Bonner leads a talented bunch of WRs which is going to make Kyle Allen’s job a lot easier. The biggest key to the Cougars’ offense just might be the offensive line. Houston has a ton of experience (5/5 returning starters), although to be fair, they struggled a bit last season (37 sacks allowed – #111 FBS on a per game basis) and need to keep Allen clean if they want to reach their potential.
DEFENSE
Houston’s run defense has been spectacular the past two seasons. They only yielded 109 yards per game in 2015 (#8 FBS) and followed that up with an even better 2016 campaign (100 – #4 FBS). The Cougars have also sacked opposing QBs 75 times over the past two seasons. Can this production continue ? It all starts up front with AA DT Ed Oliver who had 23 (!) TFL and dominated on the DL. They lose quite a bit of experience at LB but return four starters in the front seven including last season’s leading tackler LB Matthew Adams. The secondary returns pretty much intact but they only managed to pick off seven passes (wut?) as a team in 2016.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Cougars will be without reliable PK Ty Cummings and hope that Dalton Witherspoon can be an adequate replacement. CRIKEY ! – The Cougars are yet another team with a great AUSSIE punter. We find it hard to believe that Houston cannot assemble a dangerous set of return men this year.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
October 7 – SMU. This game is sandwiched between yuuuuuge conference road tests with Temple and Tulsa. Oh, and the Mustangs are a potential EMERGING JUGGERNAUT.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Houston was a comically impossible +54 (!) in turnover margin from 2013-2015. Last season things evened out a bit as they finished up at -7. Kinda no surprise that they ended up finishing 4-8-1 ATS is it ?
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the COUGARS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
We hate to do it again, but sadly, we forecast another disappointing season against the point spread. They have a new QB, new HC and some question marks on defense once you get past the DL. And Houston is a relatively high-profile team that is “fun” to bet on every week which makes finding value a bit tricky. The AAC West also looks pretty competitive.
There is a lot of talent on board but you will really have to pick your spots. Then again, who doesn’t love cougars ?
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