College Football Predictions – Memphis Tigers 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 8-5
2016 ATS – 5-8
The Tigers put up a ton of points and beat a couple of pretty good teams (Temple, Houston), but overall, they had too much trouble with similarly explosive opponents. Losses to Tulsa, USF, Navy and Western Kentucky stopped the Tigers from having a really impressive season. It was still a good start for HC Mike Norvell in his season in Memphis.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
American Athletic Conference – To be determined
OFFENSE
The Memphis offense really got cooking down the stretch scoring 51,42,34,48 and 31 in their final five games. The Tigers return 9 starters to the unit this season and should be really scary. Buckle up, yo.
QB Riley Ferguson threw for almost 3,700 yards last season with a really good 32-10 TD to INT ratio. The potential is here for Memphis to do serious damage. The THREE-HEADED MONSTER is back at RB (Dorceus, Taylor, Henderson) and they combined for over 1,800 yards rushing and 16 TDs on the ground in 2016. The offensive line returns 4/5 starters and should be one of the best units in the conference. If the Tigers can cut down a bit on the sacks allowed (35 – 2016) they just might be close to unstoppable.
JUGGERNAUT ALERT – Speaking of unstoppable, WR Anthony Miller comes to mind, as he dominated last season with 95 catches, 1,434 yards receiving and 14 (!!) TD. Miller rolled up eight 100-yard games and headlines a fine looking group of targets this season. Hopefully he receives more national recognition.
DEFENSE
The Tigers struggled mightily up front in 2016 giving up way too many yards rushing (205 per game – #10 AAC) at 5 yards a pop (also #10 AAC). They also had big problems getting PENETRATION ranking in the bottom half of the conference in both sacks and TFL per game. A couple of starters return on the DL but we still worry about their ability to apply pressure. The LB corps looks solid as the entire starting group from last season is back including 1st Team AAC performer Genard Avery. Memphis retools in the secondary and will rely upon some new faces that spent time with Power 5 programs (Oklahoma, Missouri).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Memphis has a YUUUUGE hole to fill at PK as star Jake Elliott graduated and was drafted by the Bengals. Freshman Riley Patterson takes his place. The Tigers still boast a fantastic P in Spencer Smith and also have Tony Pollard returning kickoffs (2 TD last season; AAC STPOY).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
October 19 – at Houston. This will be their 3rd road game in 20 days and they go into a potential hornet’s nest.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
We are sad to say that the rivalry with Arkansas St takes another year off. The PAINT BUCKET BOWL was first contested in 1914 and the Tigers have a 30-23-5 HAMMER LOCK on the series.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TIGERS a 7.5 ATS Value Rating (Very good) this season.
There is some really serious upside with this squad. We have them highly rated. Maybe too high, but the fact remains, we do not see a single unwinnable game on the docket. It’s hard to imagine them not being a major player in the AAC Championship race.
Now when it comes to backing them against the point spread there are a couple of problems. First off, people love betting “fun” teams and Memphis is going to quickly get on the DEGENERATE RADAR as a “fun” team to back against the number. That makes us question whether or not they will present enough value on a week-to-week basis. Secondly, the defense is going to have to improve to the point where they can actually make some stops against the other high-flying offenses in the conference.
We project a very high probability of an overall winning season ATS, but due to the concerns noted above, the ceiling on their ATS record is probably 8-9 covers. That is why we give them a rating of 7.5.
Get cho popcone.
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Accounts
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