College Football Predictions – SMU Mustangs 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 5-7
2016 ATS – 8-4
Getting there. Year two of the Chad Morris era was better than the first. The Mustangs improved their record from 2-10 to 5-7 and were not that far off from making a bowl game. Sure, the skeptics will tell you that they gave up 110 points in their final two games (wut ?), but they SHOCKED the WORLD spanking Houston as 3 TD+ underdogs and took a good Tulsa team to OT. There were some signs of life. It’s alive !!
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #5
American Athletic Conference – To be determined
OFFENSE
Whoa Nellie. The offense looks loaded. The QB situation is a bit of an unknown, but the good news is that there are plenty of options. Last season’s starter Ben Hicks ? Arkansas transfer Rafe Peavey ? Me ? The possibilities are endless. What we do know is that there are plenty of complementary weapons on hand. And by the way, HC Chad Morris will know how to utilize said weapons.
The Mustangs are loaded at RB. Braeden West led the team in rushing last season (1,036, 6 TD) and Ke’Mon Freeman added 651 yards and 4 TD rushing. Add in a healthy Xavier Jones and you have a unit that can INCINERATE opposing run defenses. They also have one of top receiving corps in the conference led by 1st Team AAC star Courtland Sutton who is one of the most dangerous weapons in all of college football (76-1,246, 10 TD in 2016). The offensive line should be really good.
DEFENSE
This is where things get just a little bit sketchy. SMU improved on defense last season allowing “only” 36.3 points per game which was more than a TD better than the 2015 DEBACLE in DALLAS (45.7). 2016 marked the third consecutive season in which the Mustangs gave up more than 200 yards per game rushing and 6+ yards per play.
Only five starters return to the unit and it is unclear if they have the personnel to move the needle in a positive direction. The only starter from the 2016 defensive line is a good one – 1st Team AAC performer Justin Lawyer – and he tallied 6 sacks and 15 TFL. Last season’s leading tackler LB Kyran Mitchell is back but they will miss a couple of key performers in the secondary.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Josh Williams connected on only 3/8 FGs from 30+ yards in 2016. The Mustangs have continuity at punter and in the return game but those were very disappointing areas last year. This could be a major problem area.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
September 23 – ARKANSAS ST. This game pops up in a TCU / Houston sandwich. Not optimal.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
SMU gave up an impossible 496 yards rushing (!) to Navy in their season finale. The Middies averaged 10.3 yards per carry. Hey look ! They play again on November 11 this year.
The Mustangs will be CHARGING HARD to make a bowl game. The last time they reached the postseason ? They dealt out an impressive 43-10 beating to Fresno St as almost 2 TD underdogs. Not surprisingly, that game was in Hawaii, and we know that anything goes in that stadium.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MUSTANGS a 4.5 ATS Value Rating (Below average) this season.
This could go either way. First and foremost, we almost always avoid teams that play bad defense, and there is no reason to believe that will not be the case in 2017. On the other hand, the offense is going to be fantastic and the players will be plenty motivated to do some damage in year three under Chad Morris. Hmmm.
There is an interesting mix of potential blowout wins (North Texas, Tulane ?) and blowout losses (TCU, Navy ?) on the docket. That means is will probably be a roller coaster ride ending (hopefully) in a bowl appearance. We will be pulling for them but recommend caution when it comes to backing them at the windows.
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