Duke Blue Devils 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Duke Blue Devils 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 4-8

2016 ATS – 7-5

We suppose it had to end at some point. The Blue Devils finished up at 4-8 after a really impressive three year run in which they compiled 27 wins. The season was really strange in the sense that they were both competitive, and brutal. They beat North Carolina as double digit underdogs. They beat Notre Dame on the road in a game in which nobody could possibly cheer for either team. Amirite? They also lost to Virginia and gave up 96 points in their final two games. Disappointing, but things should be better this season.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Coastal Division – #6

Atlantic Coast Conference – To be determined

OFFENSE

They need to be better than the 2016 unit. 23 points per game. 3.9 yards per carry. 31 sacks allowed.

They appear to be set at QB for the next few years. Daniel Jones threw for over 2800 yards while only throwing 9 INT. He also rushed for almost 500 yards while scoring 7 TD. Duke should be able to stretch the field and MATRICULATE more effectively in the passing game as the WR unit appears to be solid. Leading rusher Shaun Wilson returns but the depth behind him is unproven. The offensive line features seniors at center and left tackle. They also have a graduate transfer from Ohio St joining the group.

JUGGERNAUT ALERT – QB Daniel Jones might be on the verge of becoming a special QB. He started 12 games last season and has a better supporting cast to work with in 2017. The offensive production should be a whole lot better.

DEFENSE

The Blue Devils were also disappointing on defense last season allowing 28.2 points per game and over 400 yards per contest. The ACC was loaded, but they need to get closer to the points-allowed per game number of the 2013-2015 squads to be a factor in the division.

The defensive line is a big question mark as they return only one starter. Their two leading tacklers are both back this season at LB and they both had over 100 tackles (J Giles-Harris, B Humpheys) in 2016. The pass defense has consistently allowed less than 58% completions despite not having much of a pass rush. This year’s group should be decent.

SPECIAL TEAMS

We had to double and triple check this….But yes….PK AJ Reed made only 3/10 FG (!) last season and only one from 30+ yards. The good news ? One of those SHOCKED the WORLD in a victory over the Fighting Irish. P Austin Parker may take over the PK duties in addition to punting. Shaun Wilson had a KR TD last year. Keep an eye on the FG competition in fall camp.

Potential ATS Trouble ?

Looking at their schedule it is hard to figure out where the ATS traps may lie.

Sept 16 – BAYLOR. This is a bit of a weird spot. It comes after a revenge game with Northwestern and before the big rivalry game with North Carolina. They have only played Baylor once before and that was in the 1950s.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Did we mention Duke was 3/10 on FG last season ? Wut ?

Did we mention QB Daniel Jones ? He finished the season with a streak of over 170 passes without throwing an INT.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the BLUE DEVILS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.

Duke has been sliding the past couple of seasons from a 10-win campaign in 2013 down to a 4-8 record last year. The funny thing ? Duke has a WHOPPING 64.7% success rate against the point spread over that time horizon (33-18-1). Normally, you could argue regression is coming, but when it comes to under-the-radar football programs like Duke, they just do not get the respect they deserve.

We like the offense. The defense just has to be “not horrible”. That should mean another winning record ATS.

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