Florida St Seminoles 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Florida St Seminoles 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 10-3

2016 ATS – 8-5

That was a crazy ride for Seminoles fans ! We really enjoy watching this team and they did not disappoint on the entertainment level last year. They started out beating Ole Miss with a yuuuge 2nd half comeback and had a couple of CLOSE SHAVES when beating Miami by a point, NC State late and Michigan by a point in a fantastic Orange Bowl (72498379387490 star MEGALOCKS ORANGE BOWL SUPER LOCK). They also lost a couple of heart-breakers (UNC by 2, Clemson by 3). To round out the portfolio, they got their teeth kicked in at Louisville 63-20. At the end of it all ? Yawn. Just another 10+ win season for one of the best programs in the FBS.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Atlantic Division – #1

Atlantic Coast Conference – To be determined

OFFENSE

QB Deondre Francois proved to be the real deal last season as a redshirt freshman. He led the team to a 10-win season and proved he could win some big games. Francois threw for over 3,300 yards and only threw 7 INT in 400 attempts. Things look very promising this season when you consider the talent on hand, however, the Seminoles lose a lot of production from the 2016 unit.

We won’t rehash the Heisman debacle from last season – but let’s just say we had RB Dalvin Cook inside our Top 5. #HeismanTruth. Regardless, Florida St is going to have to come up with a way to at least “somewhat” replace their all-time leading rusher if they want to contend for a national championship. Cook was also DEVASTATING out of the backfield. This season ? Freshman Cam Akers could be really special and Jacques Patrick averaged 5.7 yards per carry in 2016. The Seminoles had over 200 yards rushing per game last season and should be able to run the ball effectively again in 2017.

The offensive line will need to do a better job in pass protection. Florida St was ranked #106 in the FBS and #10 in the ACC in sacks allowed per game in 2016. If they do a better job, Francois should be able to at least match the passing numbers from his fine first season as a starter. WR Travis Rudolph will be missed but there are a number of young and talented players waiting to make their mark.

DEFENSE

Whoa. Florida St finished up #1 in the FBS in sacks per game while totaling 51 in just 13 games. The defense got stronger as the season went along. They return 9 starters in 2017.

The defensive line will miss the production of DeMarcus Walker (16 sacks – 2016), but overall, the Seminoles will feature a LETHAL front seven that returns essentially intact from a season ago. The LB corps is full of senior leadership. Did we mention the secondary ? One of the best. The unit includes AA CB Tarvarus McFadden and they welcome back fantastic S Derwin James who missed almost the entire season last year with an injury. Have fun moving the ball on these guys.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Seminoles went with freshmen at the PK and P positions last season. The results were ok. There should be improvement. They will be able to cobble a decent kickoff and punt return group given all the speed on hand.

Potential ATS Trouble Spots

September 9 – ULM. Epic sandwich spot between ROLL TIDE and Miami. They will probably be laying a minimum of 5 TDs.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Amaze your ANNOYING CO-WORKERS with this GEM. Florida St has the longest bowl game streak going of any team in the FBS – 35 (!). #2 is Virginia Tech at 24.

Did we mention Cook finished 10th in Heisman voting last season ? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA (takes breath) HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA (falls off chair). We think 4 punters finished ahead of him in the voting. The CIA needs to employ ESPN brainwashers.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the SEMINOLES a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Very Good) this season.

This team appears to have few peers from a talent perspective. How will that translate into “wins” when you have to face Alabama, Clemson, Louisville, Florida, Miami etc ? Hard to say.

When it comes to covering the number, it is hard to ignore the fact that HC Jimbo Fisher has reeled off ATS records of 8-5, 8-5 and 11-2-1 in three of the last four campaigns. 2014 was a bit of an ATS DEBACLE. The point is that we respect a team that is pretty much always the favorite, and yet, still finds ways to reward point-spread backers.

The offense may need time to come around. Pass protection could be an issue. But the defense should be MUST SEE TV. That means you have to at least consider these guys every week.

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