College Football Predictions – Louisville Cardinals 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 9-4
2016 ATS – 6-7
Pffffft. Air out of the balloon.
Louisville got off to a really nice 9-1 start that included an EPIC BEATDOWN of Florida St. Houston proceeded to SHOCK the WORLD as two-TD underdogs and pummel the Cards 36-10, and that no doubt had an impact on their final game, another upset loss as FOUR TD favorites to Kentucky. The world was SHOCKED in back-to-back weeks. File that away under the amazing category. LSU dealt out WOODSHED treatment in the Citrus Bowl leaving the Cardinals with a 9-4 record for the season.
Lost in that ride ? Louisville came THIS close to beating the eventual National Champions on the road. Who knows how the season would have turned out if they won that game ?
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Atlantic Division – #3
Atlantic Coast Conference – To be determined
OFFENSE
There is not much to say other than WOW. The Cardinals were an absolute beast on offense last season featuring superstar QB Lamar Jackson who ripped teams apart for over 3,500 yards passing and another 1571 (!) yards rushing. How about 30 TD passes and 21 rushing TDs ? Oh, and he became the youngest player to ever win the Heisman.
The Cardinals averaged an obscene 42.5 points and 533 yards per game in 2016 despite running into a couple of brick walls (Houston, LSU) late in the year. Jackson is back to lead the offense but Louisville lost a lot of production from the 2016 unit. #1 RB Brandon Radcliff is gone as are their top three receiving targets from a season ago. The good news is that there is still a lot of talent on board, albeit unproven. And you have to believe that Petrino will know how to use the new chess pieces.
True freshman Colin Wilson could be the starting RB. They have depth at this position. WR Jaylen Smith returns after hauling in 27 passes for 599 yards (22.2 a pop) and he will be a fine option to keep defenses honest. The offensive line returns only two starters from the 2016 team but they are yuuuuuge and it helps to have a crazy-mobile QB like Jackson. A worry ? Louisville has allowed 40+ sacks for three straight seasons.
DEFENSE
The defense did a good job last year yielding only 23.8 points per game and they held opponents to a mere 115 yards rushing per contest (#12 FBS) and only 7 rushing TDs for the entire season (tied #2 FBS; only ROLL TIDE was better). 7 starters return in 2017.
There are a couple of questions. First, they lost a lot of experience in the front 7, particularly at LB. Secondly, they have a new DC, as Todd Grantham left for Mississippi St. We do feel really good about their secondary which returns 4/4 starters including CB Jaire Alexander who was a 4th team AA last year. Oh, a third question. Sorry. Can their pass rush improve ? Their sack total has dropped in 3-straight seasons from 43 to 41 to 38 to 30 in 2016.
SPECIAL TEAMS
MEGALOCKS ACC INSIDERS are really high on this unit. PK Brandon Creque nailed 16/19 FG. P Mason King netted over 40 yards per punt. PR J Alexander took one to the house in 2016. And you know they will find a least one speedy KR. Good looking, yo.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
October 14 – BOSTON COLLEGE. Welcome to the Boston College meat grinder. Yes, they pummeled BC 52-7 last season, but this game is sandwiched between a tough road game at NC State and the YUUUUUGE rematch with Florida St. They will be laying a ton of points. Will not be our cup of tea.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Louisville enjoyed dealing out beatings nice and early in 2016. They outscored opponents 139-57 in the first quarter (+82).
Annoying GAME IS OVER GUY thought the Clemson / Louisville UNDER was a LOCK. 0-0 at the end of the first quarter. Oops. Final score ? 42-36. Boy, GAME IS OVER GUY might be THE worst of all time. Amirite ?
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CARDINALS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
The Cardinals are going to be popular at the windows once again. It’s just plain “fun” to back teams with offenses like this, right ? Well, Louisville is a pedestrian 20-19 the past three seasons against the number. As home chalk they are a poor 6-9 (40%) over that same time horizon. We believe that you will be getting the worst of the number if you back the Cardinals as favorites. There are a number of patsies on the docket and we can see some disappointments when laying big lumber a la Duke, Virginia and Kentucky in 2016.
Lamar Jackson is going to be crazy-good once again. The offense will probably not miss a beat and that makes them perpetually dangerous. We just need to see how the defense comes together before pouncing.
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