Virginia Cavaliers 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Virginia Cavaliers 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record –2-10

2016 ATS – 5-7

Well that certainly escalated quickly. Virginia opened the campaign with an ugly loss to the wacky Richmond Spiders (FCS) and struggled mightily all season. They beat the Dukies on the road and almost upset Louisville as YUUUGE underdogs, but other than that, it was a HOT MESS. They can be forgiven somewhat as the talent cupboard was pretty bare and HC Mendenhall was in his first season in Charlottesville. Onward and upward.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Coastal Division – #7

Atlantic Coast Conference – To be determined

OFFENSE

Whoa that was awful. The Cavaliers were last in the ACC in rushing yards per game last season (114) and only managed to put up 22.5 points per game. Poor offensive line play prevented Virginia from getting any consistent traction on offense.

Kurt Benkert started out really well in 2016 but they got worn down by the relentless punishment served up by the offensive line. Injuries, lack of confidence and bonehead mistakes led to his benching. We feel that Benkert has a lot of upside this season provided he stays healthy. MEGALOCKS ACC INSIDERS have advised us that two QBs on the preseason depth chart are no longer with the team (Marvin Zanders, Sonny Abramson) so depth is now an issue.

The OL has adds two graduate transfers and should be stronger in 2017. A third grad transfer, and projected starter, Colin McGovern will not join the unit. The running game loses their most productive player in RB Taquan Mizzell (940 yards rushing, 52 receptions) and will need to find some production from inexperienced RBs. The WR corps looks pretty good as the top two return (Olamide Zaccheaus, Doni Dowling) for this campaign.

DEFENSE

I’m sure we all remember the days of Welcome Back, Kotter and One Day at a Time. The year was 1975, and that was the last time the Cavaliers allowed more points than they did in 2016 (33.8). Nothing worked. It did not help that Virginia was last in the ACC in turnover margin (-9) but the overall performance was a bit dismal.

The Cavaliers have some nice pieces to build around on defense this season. Their two leading tacklers are back for duty and LB Micah Kiser was a tackling machine last year tallying 134 stops (#3 FBS) and 10 TFL and achieved 2nd team AA status. DE Andrew Brown emerged as a legitimate pass rushing threat last season. Overall, Virginia returns 8 starters and they should be a lot better this season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Cavs should be fine in the return game but need to break in a new PK and will miss the punting of Nicholas Conte. Mixed feelings.

Potential ATS Trouble Spots

October 21 – BOSTON COLLEGE. Potential letdown spot after games vs more traditional rivals Duke and North Carolina.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Cavaliers have the longest bowl game appearance drought in the ACC (2011) and last tasted the sweet taste of a bowl game WIN in the epic 34-31 Music City Bowl vs the Golden Gophers.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the CAVALIERS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.

Do not adjust your sets. Yes, Virginia is on a brutal 17-43 SU run (28% wins) the past five seasons, but we are talking about potential point spread success. They just might be a team to watch when it comes to covering the number. We are bit worried about recent developments (assistant HC McNeil left, loss of depth at QB, lost an OL transfer).

Overall, we are still at least a bit intrigued. They are set at QB. The OL should be better with the grad transfers. And the WR unit looks solid. With eight returning starters in defense, including a few potential stars, there is definitely reason to think that the Cavaliers will be a money-maker ATS in 2017.

Want more Virginia Cavaliers football?

Website

http://www.virginiasports.com/sports/m-footbl/va-m-footbl-body.html

Forum

Free

http://chat.virginia.sportswar.com/message_board/football/

Restricted

https://virginia.forums.rivals.com/forums/hoos-next.6/

http://virginia.247sports.com/Board/Virginia-Cavaliers-Message-Board-Forum-16

http://www.scout.com/college/virginia/forums/2922-hoonation

News

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/virginia-cavaliers