College Football Predictions – Maryland Terrapins 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 6-7
2016 ATS – 4-9
Not a bad start.
Year one of the DJ Durkin era was a lot better than expected. The Terrapins started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE winning their first four games but struggled the rest of the way finishing up the regular season at 6-6. We won’t talk about the back-to-back games vs Michigan and Ohio St that they lost by a combined score of 121-6. Boston College beat them 36-30 in an entertaining Quick Lane Bowl and they ended up at 6-7.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 10 – TBD
East Division – TBD
OFFENSE
Maryland has not averaged 30 points per game on offense since the 2010 season, and not coincidentally, they were 9-4 that year. In 2016, Maryland was just 10th in the Big 10 in total offense and 8th in scoring (25.8 per game), but something that may surprise you was the effectiveness of the ground attack. They were 4th in the Big 10 (!) averaging 200 yards per game on the ground placing them ahead of Minnesota and Penn St. This year they bring back the 1-2 punch of Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison who combined for over 1,600 yards and 11 TDs. Johnson averaged 9.1 yards per carry (!!) and Harrison was good for 7.2 (!). WHOA NELLIE. The offensive line brings back 3/5 starters and the running game appears to be in very good shape.
We cannot avoid talking about the quarterback situation. MEGALOCKS MARYLAND INSIDERS will be keeping tabs on the QB battle during fall camp. The ideal scenario would be for prize recruit Kasim Hill to start right away but it is always a bit risky going with a true freshman. There are some other options on the roster including transfer Caleb Henderson. It’s a huge question mark but we can also see the potential upside. The Terrapins are going to have to be a whole lot better at protecting the QB as they allowed an unfathomable 49 (!) sacks last year which put them DEAD LAST in the Big 10 and 2nd last in the FBS just one ahead of the JUGGERNAUT San Jose St Spartans (50). #1 WR DJ Moore is back this year and he is a legit target.
DEFENSE
HC DJ Durkin knows about defense. Maryland improved by five points per game on defense last season but still allowed almost 30 points per contest. It may take a bit of time but we feel the improved recruiting and coaching will pay dividends sooner rather than later.
This year Maryland brings back 7 starters to the mix including their top-3 tacklers from last year. Senior LBs Shane Cockerille and Jermaine Carter both tallied over 100 tackles in 2016. Maryland bagged 37 sacks in 2016 and the DL returns #1 sack man Jesse Aniebonam. The secondary returns 3/4 starters and only allowed 56% completions last year. It feels like the defense can take another step forward.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The group returns almost intact including PK Adam Greene (9/14 FGs last year) and P Wade Lees. We have a suspicion that the Terps will be able to find some dangerous return men.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
October 21 – at Wisconsin. This will be Maryland’s 3rd road game in four weeks. The previous two ? Minnesota and Ohio St. They may be a bit weary and that is not a good thing when you must travel to Madison. They will be big underdogs but it may not be the best spot to hope for a cover.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Maryland has not tasted bowl victory since the 2010 Military Bowl when they spanked East Carolina 51-20.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TERRAPINS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
We have no doubt that this team will be better in 2017. On paper, at least. The problem is a nasty schedule that has just a couple of games that appear to be freebies. It is going to be a challenge to get to a bowl game but they are more than capable of staying within a lot of big point spreads. We think they will SHOCK THE WORLD once or twice. Wait to see what the QB situation looks like but do NOT discount the ability of a decent running game and defense to get the money more often than not.
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Website
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News
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/maryland/
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