Michigan Wolverines 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Michigan Wolverines 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 10-3

2016 ATS – 6-7

Five points. That is all that stood between Michigan and an undefeated season. They finished up the campaign at 10-3 but lost three of their final four games including a classic Orange Bowl match-up with Florida St. That makes it twenty wins in two seasons under the watch of HC Jim Harbaugh. So far so good. But can they take the next step ? Let’s dig in.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Big 10 – TBD

East Division – TBD

OFFENSE

Michigan averaged just 21 points per game the season before Jim Harbaugh arrived on the scene. They improved to 31 points per contest in 2015 and last year managed to tally 40 while conducting a very balanced attack. This year the Wolverines return four starters on offense, and most importantly, they bring back QB Wilton Speight who was really efficient last season. He made some mistakes but came very close to leading this team to a Big 10 Title. An injury late in the season did not help.

The Wolverines will need to MATRICULATE in the passing game without their top-3 targets from last season including WR Amara Darboh and all-world TE Jake BUTT. There is a lot of young talent to work with including highly-recruited specimen WR Donovan Peoples-Jones but you need to expect some growing pains. Michigan loses last season’s leading rusher De’Veon Smith but we have no worries about the running game. They have a fine stable of running backs and we have no doubt the ground game will work. The offensive line is down a notch in terms of experience which is a bit of a concern, however, the raw talent on board is exceptional.

DEFENSE

Whoa. That defense was pretty special last season allowing just 14 points (2nd FBS – Alabama) and 262 yards per game (Tied 1st FBS – you guessed it – Alabama). They were solid vs the run, great against the pass and got all kinds of PENETRATION tallying 46 sacks. Can they come close to that performance with only one starter returning on defense ? The talent is there and you know they will be well coached. The only concern we have is how quickly they can gel. The players no longer with the team include last season’s leading tackler Ben Gedeon, sack-master Taco Charlton and do-everything defender Jabrill Peppers. We don’t think it is fair to expect the same level of performance in 2017 but do think their defense will be good enough to win the Big 10 East if the offense and special teams hold serve.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Yikes. Total reload on special teams, yo. There will be a freshman PK and P on board and that is always a bit of a red flag no matter how highly-recruited the players might be – you never know until the pressure is on. And yes, there will be pressure. Losing Peppers from the return units is a significant blow.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

October 14 – at Indiana. This game pops up in a Michigan St / Penn St sandwich and the Hoosiers are no pushover.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Dedicated and alert MEGALOCKS ELITE SUBSCRIBERS know that we pay careful attention to the PHIL STEELE experience chart in his awesome preview magazine. Michigan is ranked #127. Not saying, just saying.

Do not be surprised to see Harbaugh get a backup punter or 4th string linebacker into the Heisman race by scoring meaningless goal line TDs vs Cincinnati, Purdue and Rutgers.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the WOLVERINES a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.

It’s anyone’s guess how quickly the new Wolverines defense can mold into the Harbaugh-style brick wall. And what about the new skill guys on offense ? And the new faces on special teams ? Hmm. The schedule is no piece of cake as Florida and Air Force are no picnic, and overall, we think the Big 10 East will be tougher to navigate this season. Oh, and they finish up with games vs Wisconsin and Ohio St.

Michigan is 13-13 ATS (.500 for math wizards) against the point spread in two years under Jim Harbaugh. The value is often hard to find because DEGENERATE NATION and INSANE FAN GUY love to unload on the Wolverines. The spreads are often inflated. We think these guys will be really good but when it comes to beating Vegas we advise that you use a patient approach and not lay a ton of points with this team.

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