Baylor Bears 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Baylor Bears 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 7-6

2016 ATS – 5-8

Whoa, Nellie.

The Bears jumped out to a 6-0 start but promptly lost their last six (!) regular season games to finish at 6-6. They did manage to smoke Boise St in the Cactus Bowl as a TD underdog to end the campaign at 7-6. Emerging JUGGERNAUT HC Matt Rhule comes from Temple to take over the reins. Let’s see what happens, yo.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Big 12 – TBD

OFFENSE

There are some pretty big changes on the horizon for the Baylor Bears, most notably, the move to a more conventional offense. The transition may not be that rocky. Baylor has a couple of options at QB including Zach Smith who played pretty well as a true freshman in 2016 and Anu Solomon who had a lot of starting experience at Arizona. It will be interesting to see how this competition plays out during the summer.

Baylor has rushed for over 200 yards per game for six consecutive seasons and they look solid at RB in 2017. Terrance Williams had over 1,000 yards rushing and 11 TDs in 2016 while JaMycal Hasty provides depth. The offensive line returns 3/5 starters and has some nice size but they lack depth. Baylor will be without their top-2 WRs from 2016 and will rely on Chris Platt (567, 4 TD, 16.2) to emerge as a true #1 option.

The offense will look different but the talent on board appears solid.

DEFENSE

The Bears bagged 30+ sacks for the fourth straight season in 2016 but struggled against the run in a big way. They allowed 201 yards rushing per contest and move to a 4-3 alignment this season. Matt Rhule’s Temple teams played solid defense in his final three seasons in Philadelphia (18.4, 20.1, 17.5 ppg allowed) and we expect the Baylor stop unit to improve. Five starters return in the front seven including 1st Team DE KJ Smith (7 sacks, 12 TFL) and LB Taylor Young (93 tackles, 9 TFL). The secondary may be down a notch due to inexperience.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Bears have to find a new PK but otherwise have nice continuity in place. Tony Nicholson averaged 10 yards per punt return in 2016.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

September 16 – at Duke. This is the last tune-up before Big 12 play begins. Up next ? Oklahoma.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Baylor has won 7+ games for – you guessed it – 7 consecutive seasons. That is pretty impressive considering where the program was not too long ago.

Baylor was ranked dead last in penalties per game AND penalty yardage per game in 2016.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the BEARS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.

This could go either way. We are a fan of the Matt Rhule hire but he may need a bit of time to get things settled. Any time a team has this many scheme and personnel changes you have to be a bit leery of jumping on board. The Bears were just 11-15 ATS over the past two seasons.

We project an ATS record close to .500 with the potential downside being greater than the upside. Watch for now, but be ready to pounce later in the year, especially if they hold their own vs Oklahoma and/or Kansas St in September.

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