Oklahoma St Cowboys 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Oklahoma St Cowboys 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 10-3

2016 ATS – 7-5-1

Yawn. Another winning season in the books.

The Cowboys bagged another 10-win campaign culminating in a decisive Alamo Bowl victory over the emerging juggernaut, Colorado Buffaloes. The only losses on the card were road games at Baylor and Oklahoma. Oh, and there was the “loss” to Central Michigan at home. Oklahoma St continued to play an exciting brand of football and almost pulled off a Big 12 title.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Big 12 – TBD

OFFENSE

This could get messy. The Cowboys were really good on offense last year but this season promises to be special. They are absolutely loaded. QB Mason Rudolph threw for over 4,000 yards and had a sparkling 28-4 TD ratio. That is FOUR INT in 448 attempts. He also ran for 6 more scores. Yes, shockingly, he did not appear on any ESPN Heisman hype videos so he ended up finishing behind a long snapper from Idaho and the Dr Pepper guy in the voting.

Rudolph has a scary number of weapons at his disposal. The running game should be excellent with a big and experienced offensive line paving the way for emerging star Justice Hill (1,142, 6 TD). The passing attack should be DEVASTATING with James Washington returning for his senior season. Washington racked up 1,380 receiving yards and 10 TD at 19.4 (!!) yards a pop. Jalen McCleskey and Chris Lacy provide depth and additional targets that Rudolph can use to CARVE up opposing defenses.

It is conceivable that the Cowboys score 50+ in half of their games.

DEFENSE

The Cowboys were sneaky good last season finishing up #3 in the Big 12 in scoring defense (26.5). They held TCU and Colorado to under 10 points in two of their last three games. And they tallied 32 sacks. However, there was still the leaky run defense (193 yards per game), and pass defense that allowed over 60% completions.

Oklahoma St only returns five starters from the 2016 unit and may be hard pressed to equal last season’s overall performance. We worry about the pass rush as only one player returns this season that registered more than three sacks in 2016 (DL Tralund Webber – 6), and overall, the front seven is lacking in experience. They do have MLB Chad Whitener (2nd Team Big 12) back in the fold along with a couple of fine safeties. Overall, it feels like the defense may be down a notch, and that there is potential to get roasted vs talented offenses.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Cowboys welcome back LETHAL WEAPON Zach Sino who is a fantastic punter. They will have to reload at PK (Ben Grogan – career FG leader departs) and on the return teams.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

September 16 – at Pittsburgh. This is their second consecutive road game with Big 12 play on deck (TCU). The Panthers will be looking to avenge last season’s loss in Stillwater.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Cowboys have finished with a “+” double-digit turnover margin in 5 of the last 7 seasons.

Mike Gundy is 3rd in head coaching tenure (Kirk Ferentz – Iowa; Gary Patterson – TCU).

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the COWBOYS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.

These guys just might be on a COLLISION COURSE WITH DESTINY. The Big 12 is there for the taking, and make no mistake, these guys are as good as any team in the conference on paper. The offense will be lights-out. We worry a bit about the defense but nobody is perfect. Any they do have a knack of getting the nod in turnover margin.

When it comes to the point spread, it may be difficult to play these guys once everyone catches on to how good they are on offense. They will be laying a ton of points on many occasions and that is never a great recipe for consistently covering the number. The Pokes won 20 games over the past two seasons but still only posted a .500 mark ATS.

Keep them on the radar. Just be careful laying a boatload of points.

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