College Football Predictions – FIU Panthers 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 4-8
2016 ATS – 5-6-1
The Panthers got off to a rough 0-4 start and could not recover finishing up the season at 4-8. They managed to scrape together three wins in a row mid-season including a win over Florida Atlantic (a 9001 STAR MEGALOCKS DIME CLUB WINNER) but lost their momentum and sputtered coming home. New HC Butch Davis (yes THAT Butch Davis) takes over and is almost certain to turn their fortunes around. Is 2017 too early ? Let’s dig in.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Conference USA – TBD
East Division – TBD
OFFENSE
The Panthers will have Alex McGough at QB and he is #2 on the school’s all-time passing list. He struggled a bit last season with a 13-11 TD to INT ratio but will likely rebound this season with an experienced receiving corps. We worry a bit about pass protection as FIU was ranked 10th in the conference last season in sacks allowed and only return 2/5 starters on the offensive line. The good news is that their best offensive player Alex Gardner returns for his senior campaign and he led the team in rushing last season (930) while catching 30 passes out of the backfield. FIU averaged 24 points per game in 2016 and we think an improvement is a given provided the new offensive line gels in reasonable time.
DEFENSE
The defense really struggled last season stopping the run and getting PENETRATION and that is NEVER going to end well. This season things are looking up as new DC Brent Guy has 8 returning starters to work with including their top-2 leading tacklers from last season. In fact MLB Anthony Wint was a 2nd Team CUSA honoree who recorded 108 tackles in 2016. The DL returns three starters but is lacking in size. The Panthers only bagged 17 sacks in 12 games last year and that has to improve. The secondary is experienced. Overall we expect a move forward but cannot give a ringing endorsement without knowing where the PENETRATION is going to come from in 2017.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The return units look to be in good shape but we worry a bit about the kicking game. FIU will break in a new PK this year and P Stone “Cold” Wilson only averaged 38 yards per punt last season (34.2 net).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
October 7 – at MTSU. This will be their 4th roadie in the first six games of the season and MTSU is no fun to play. Will probably avoid taking the points in this spot.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Panthers have not had a winning season since 2011 and only boast a pair of winning campaigns in the past ten years.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the PANTHERS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
We have mixed feelings about this squad. The offense should be solid although we need to point out that a malfunctioning offensive line can disrupt the most well-intended plans. The defense will be improved but we are worried about the ability to get pressure on the QB. From a betting perspective it feels like a wait and see approach is best.
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