College Football Predictions – MTSU Blue Raiders 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 8-5
2016 ATS – 6-7
Just another day at the office.
The Blue Raiders fired off their fifth consecutive winning season with a record of 8-5. As per usual there were a few disappointments along the way and they failed to reach the goal of a division title. The double OT loss to WKU mid-season was a killer and the losses to UTSA and Marshall sealed the deal. They lost in the Hawaii Bowl 52-35 to……Hawaii to finish the campaign.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Conference USA – TBD
East Division – TBD
OFFENSE
If you plan on defending the MTSU passing game this season you better strap it on, yo. QB Brent Stockstill is back and he garnered 2nd Team CUSA honors last season while throwing for 3,200 yards and 31 TDs despite missing time due to injury.
MTSU also boasts one of the most dangerous players in college football in WR Richie James who had 1,600 (!) yards receiving last year to go along with 12 TD catches. He also rushed (!) for over 300 yards. Wr Ty Lee is a great #2 option. The big concern with this year’s offense is how they replace the production of RB I’Tavius Mathers (1,561, 17 TD). It’s a complete unknown as we go to press. Oh, and the offensive line brings back just 2/5 starters. It’s hard to imagine this offense being anything less than really good but the potential lack of balance keeps us up at night. <reads bedtime story to mellow out>
DEFENSE
The defense was a big disappointment in 2016 finishing 9th in CUSA in total defense and 11th in scoring defense (36 points per game allowed). There is good news and bad news this season. Let’s first deal with the bad. The defensive line is completely reloaded and has no returning starters. We worry about the line getting adequate PENETRATION. The good news ? Eight of their nine top tacklers from last season’s unit are back in the mix including leading tackler LB Chris Melton and three starters in the secondary. We think improvement is in the cards but it is hard to say how big of a step forward they will take in 2017.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The unit looks pretty solid. Appropriately-named PK Canon Rooker hit 16/19 FGs last season and took home 1st Team CUSA honors. The rest of the specialists look good.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
September 30 – at Florida Atlantic. This will be their 3rd road game in four weeks after already having visited Syracuse and Minnesota.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MTSU is developing a habit of losing bowl games. They have lost four straight are are now 1-5 all-time.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BLUE RAIDERS a 4.5 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
There are some things to get excited about and some things to be worried about. That is pretty much par for the course when discussing MTSU. They are definitely in the mix in the division but we worry about the running game and DL. Those are two areas we pay particular attention to when handicapping games. And if there is such thing as a jinx team – this is one of our nemesis squads. We love watching them and adding them to our card but are often disappointed. Use caution.
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