College Football Predictions – UTSA Roadrunners 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 6-7
2016 ATS – 8-5
Yes, guy.
The Roadrunners had a fine season highlighted by wins over Southern Miss and MTSU as well as their first ever bowl game appearance. They battled the Lobos to the wire in the New Mexico Bowl but came up short. HC Frank Wilson did a fine job in his first year with UTSA and now has to think that a division title is well within their reach. Is that realistic ? Let’s find out.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Conference USA – TBD
West Division – TBD
OFFENSE
The Roadrunners enter the season with a solid senior starting QB in Dalton Sturm. He was not spectacular but had an excellent 20-6 TD to INT ratio and also ran for four scores. Sturm has the benefit of his top-four WRs from last year all returning for duty. Josh Stewart and Kerry Thomas both had fine average-per-catch statistics (18.9, 15.9). Our biggest concern with the offense is pass protection. UTSA yielded 43 (!) sacks last season which tied them for last in the conference. They were dead last in 2015. They have to try and avoid so many negative plays.
The Roadrunners lose half of their potent 1-2 punch at RB but do return Jalen Rhodes who has the potential for a 1,000-yard season (827, 5.3, 9 TD in 2016). Three starters return on the offensive line but they are breaking in a pair of new tackles. Overall we like the look of the offense and think they will match last season’s scoring total of 29.2 points per game.
DEFENSE
That was more like it. UTSA got back to their usual selves on defense finishing 4th in CUSA in total defense. The pass defense was particularly good allowing just 55% completions although they did only come up with 7 picks. This season they return 7 starters and look to be really solid as they return four of their top five tacklers from a season ago. Those players include DE Marcus Davenport who led the team in sacks last year as well as 1st Team CUSA honoree LB Josiah Tauaefa who had 115 tackles and 9 TFL. The secondary returns three senior starters and should have similar success to 2016.
SPECIAL TEAMS
UTSA should have a good kicking game with both PK Victor Falcon (12/17) and P Yannis Routsas back in their roles. Both kick returners are back and the Roadrunners finished 3rd in the conference in KO return average in 2016.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
November 4 – at FIU. This will be their third road date in four weeks and involves a trip to Florida after a game in El Paso.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Roadrunners have only allowed 30 points per game once in their brief history as an FBS squad (2015).
UTSA has a career record of 1-4 against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs appear to be their main competition in the division and they meet in Ruston on November 25.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the ROADRUNNERS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
This team is set up for success. The offense should be balanced with a senior QB at the controls. The defense looks really good. A bowl game seems like a virtual lock BUT the goals are definitely higher. It should be a fun season for UTSA fans. When it comes to beating Vegas this is a squad we can get behind. We will probably avoid if they are huge favorites but will be checking them out most weeks for inclusion on our card.
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