BYU Cougars 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – BYU Cougars 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 9-4

2016 ATS – 8-4-1

The Cougars finished up at 9-4 after their victory over Wyoming in the Poinsettia Bowl. All four of their losses were painfully close. Utah by 1. UCLA and West Virginia by 3. Boise St by 1. Ugh. Once their schedule lightened up it was a sparkling finish outscoring opponents 136-29 (!) over the final four regular season games.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Independents – #2

OFFENSE

The Cougars move on from the Taysom Hill era and are fortunate to have a proven signal caller in Tanner Mangum waiting in the wings (3300+ 23 TD in 2015). The RB and WR corps are in rebuild mode and it will be interesting to see who emerges at those skill positions. More pertinent – do they have the playmakers necessary to make the offense hum ?

RB Squally Canada is the leading rusher (315) from the 2016 squad and they lose their top 3 WRs. MEGALOCKS BYU INSIDERS have alerted us that TE may be the strongest unit on the offense outside of the OL. That has the alarm bells going RINGY DINGY DINGY. Speaking of the OL, 4/5 starters return and they should be really good. We worry a bit about Magnum’s mobility compared to that of Taysom Hill.

DEFENSE

The DL was excellent last season as the Cougars held opponents to just 113 yards per game (#9 FBS) while yielding only 3.4 yards per carry. They also played a nasty schedule. The pass rush was not elite (29 sacks). This season the Cougars only return 1/4 starters on the DL and have no proven pass rushers. The LB unit is excellent and they have 3/3 returning starters. Those guys were also the team’s three leading tacklers in 2016. The secondary looks to be improved as there is a lot of experience, and as a team, the Cougars picked off 21 passes last year (T4 FBS with Ohio St).

SPECIAL TEAMS

PK Rhett Almond was CASH MONEY inside 40 yards last season but 0/3 from 40+. The Cougars return their P and KR group from 2016. Overall, this feels like an average unit.

Potential ATS Trouble Spots

November 10 – at UNLV. This will be their 4th road game in 5 weeks (!) and they are almost certainly going to be laying a lot of points.

November 18 – Massachusetts. THEY ARE GONNA KILL EM GUY will be all over BYU laying 7 TDs but you always need to be leery of backing yuuuuuge favorites in meaningless games. Especially when a trip to HAWAII is on deck.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Did we mention that BYU had 4 losses in 2016….and those defeats came by a COMBINED 8 (!) points ? #FunWithMath

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the COUGARS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.

Hmm. We just cannot be sure about this offense. The Cougars appear set at QB and on the OL but it is hard to imagine them giving the better teams on their schedule much of a problem. This would not be an issue if the defense appeared to be LIGHTS OUT on paper, but in reality, it looks like a solid group that will still struggle getting PENETRATION. Oh, and if you did not notice, the Cougars have to deal with LSU, Utah and Wisconsin in consecutive weeks in September. Hopefully they can use the subsequent bye week (or as they say on the internet discussion boards – the BUY week) to heal up and start a late season surge. Just not sure the motivation will be there once the easier games arrive.

BYU has racked up a 16-9-1 (64%) ATS record the past two seasons. They must always be respected because they play so hard, but just being honest, it seems as though it may be an uphill battle vs the point spread this year.

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