College Football Predictions – Massachusetts Minutemen 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 2-10
2016 ATS – 7-5
It’s been a long time since a team came so close to SHOCKING the WORLD without actually pulling it off. The Minutemen finished up at 2-10 but gave three SEC teams a run for their money. They were in the game into the 4th quarter against the Gators (24-7 loss; cover), battled vs Mississippi St (47-35 loss; cover) and gave South Carolina all they could handle (34-28 loss; cover). It was a comically difficult schedule but they manged to compete hard all season. They have not won more than three games since 2011 (5-6).
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #4
OFFENSE
Don’t look now but the Minutemen have assembled some nice pieces on offense. QB Andrew Ford threw for over 2,600 yards with a decent 26-14 TD to INT ratio considering the defenses they contended with in 2016. We project a step forward this season. Massachusetts also boasts some dangerous weapons at RB (Marquis Young 898, 4 TD) and potentially the most underrated TE in the FBS (Adam Breneman 808, 8 TD). The only concern, and it is a big one, is on the offensive line where they are less experienced than last season’s unit. Bottom line. We feel that the Minutemen will have success against everyone other than the toughest opponents on their schedule.
DEFENSE
The Minutemen have yielded 30+ points per game for five straight seasons. There is hope on the horizon. Nine starters return on defense and the schedule is more manageable. They also scooped up DC Ed Pinkham from Western Michigan where his defense led the MAC in scoring defense a season ago (19.8).
There is experience at each level of the defense, particularly in the front 7, where six starters return for duty including leading tackler LB Steve Casali. Now to be realistic, even though the secondary returns three starters, the Minutemen are going to have to do better than 4 (!) INT (#126 FBS) for the entire season if they want to reach the lofty goal of making a bowl game.
SPECIAL TEAMS
At least there is continuity. Logan Laurent appears to be the leader in the clubhouse when it comes to handling the FG duties and punting. The potential in the return game appears limited.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
November 18 – at BYU. If they have been eliminated from bowl game contention (likely) this would be a bad time to fade THEY ARE GONNA KILL EM GUY. Let him win this game and bump his record to 28% on the season.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Minutemen did not face third down often in 2016 – but when they did – they preferred to face an average of 3rd down and 8 (!). That average was the worst in the entire FBS.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 8.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MINUTEMEN a 8.0 ATS Value Rating (Excellent) this season.
You knew this was coming. Didn’t you ?
This looks to be HC Mark Whipple’s best team in his second tour of duty with Massachusetts. The offense is going to have some pop. The defense returns nine starters and has some talented individuals. And the bonus ? Nobody in their right mind looks to back these guys against the point spread. The Minutemen have bagged two fine ATS records in the past three years (8-4 in 2014; 7-5 in 2016) despite a record of 5-19 over those two campaigns.
Be brave, Sparky.
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