College Football Predictions – Ball St Cardinals 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 4-8
2016 ATS – 7-5
Year one of the Mike Neu era started off pretty well. The Cardinals were 4-3 at one point with winnable games left on the schedule, but unfortunately, things came crashing down with five straight losses to end the campaign. Four wins was one better than the previous season. Can Ball St make another move forward ?
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
MAC – TBD
West Division – TBD
OFFENSE
QB Riley Neal leads the Ball St attack and has a lot of experience under his belt considering he is still just a junior. Last year Neal had a mediocre 13-12 TD to INT ratio but did have 8 rushing TDs to his credit and over 500 yards on the ground. Ball St loses their top-2 WRs from last season’s team and are very inexperienced at the position compared to the group that took the field at the end of 2016.
It’s a little-known MAC FACTOID that Ball St was 3rd in the conference last season in rushing yards per game (220) and rushing TDs (25). The ground game should still be really good this year with 1,300-yard back James Gilbert (1st Team MAC) back to rip apart the soft underbellies of the MAC defenses. Darian Green is a good backup RB. The offensive line brings back 4/5 starters and looks like a fine unit.
DEFENSE
This could be a problem.
Ball St was LAST in the MAC last season in total defense allowing 470 yards per game. This year they lose their top FIVE tacklers and will feature an inexperienced front 7. The good news is that they have an excellent pass-rushing DE in Anthony Winbush who led the team with 8.5 sacks and 5 QBH. The pass defense was horrid in 2016 but they do return a pair of starting CBs including Marc Walton who had 11 PBU and 3 INTs last year. Ball St bagged 32 sacks in 2016 and caused some havoc but still got roasted via the pass. It’s hard to forecast a ton of improvement and new DC David Elson will have his hands full.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Morgan Hagee was 15/19 on FG attempts last season. They will have to find a new punter as the reliable Kyle Schmidt is gone. The return units do not appear to be scary.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
September 23 – at Western Kentucky. MAC play is on deck and the WKU offense is no fun to play against.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Ball St has an all-time bowl record of 0-7. You know MEGALOCKS NATION will be pulling for these guys to win when they get another shot.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CARDINALS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
There is some potential here. While we understand that Ball St is not in the same league as ROLL TIDE (or even Toledo) there are several winnable games on the schedule. The division is pretty competitive but we can see a scenario where the Cardinals weasel their way into bowl game contention. They really need to win at least two of the first three games. Buffalo and Miami Ohio are the final two games on the docket.
From a betting perspective it is hard to trust a team that looks like it will struggle mightily on defense. The QB/RB combo is nice. It seems that the best approach will be to wait and see if the defense shows any signs of improvement. KAW KAW ! (Cardinals’ noise ?)
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