College Football Predictions – Toledo Rockets 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 9-4
2016 ATS – 6-6-1
It was another close call, but once again, the Rockets fell a bit short of reaching the MAC Title game. They had a nice season finishing up at 9-4 but could not handle the JUGGERNAUT Western Michigan Broncos in their final regular season game. Keep in mind that outside of that game the Rockets’ other three losses were by a combined 10 points. Toledo continues to be a consistently excellent under-the-radar program.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
MAC – TBD
West Division – TBD
OFFENSE
Raise your hand if you knew that QB Logan Woodside had 45 TD passes last season. Crickets. Woodside had a great campaign throwing for over 4,000 yards with only 9 INT. The Rockets will be without their excellent TE Michael Roberts (16 TD ! in 2016) but return their most dangerous weapon in WR Cody Thompson (1269, 11 TD, 19.8 !) and will also enjoy having Jon’vea Johnson (773, 10 TD) back in the mix. The Rockets have been truly amazing the past number of years protecting the QB even with inexperienced offensive lines. This year they only return a couple of starters but the smart money is on Woodside having another yuuuge year with excellent protection.
The Rockets averaged less than 200 yards per game rushing last year for the first time since 2012. They may find it hard to exceed that target this season without their all-time leading rusher Kareem Hunt on board. Hunt was also an excellent receiver. Terry Swanson is back (583, 4 TD) but it is hard to project increased production in the run game this year.
DEFENSE
The Rockets were 4th in the MAC last season in scoring defense (25.7) which was pretty good considering that they were below average in sacks per game (#8 MAC) and only picked off six passes all season. The DL has some nice size but will need to find a way to get more PENETRATION and be stronger against the run. Their best defensive player LB Ja’Wuan Woodley was their 2nd leading tackler in 2016 while also collecting 13 TFL. The starting secondary returns almost entirely intact and they allowed only 55% completions last season. Overall we worry a bit about their ability to but pressure on the QB but still classify them as an above-average MAC defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game does not get us too excited. PK Jameson West made 13/19 FGs last season and they need to break in a new punter. They are going to miss dangerous return man Corey Jones.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
Nov 15 – at Bowling Green. This will be their 3rd road game in four weeks and they have a yuuuuge date with Western Michigan on deck. Cannot see them having the extra motivation usually required to cover as large road favorites.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Toledo has allowed just 42 sacks over the past four seasons COMBINED. Wow.
The Rockets last losing season was back in 2009.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the ROCKETS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
It’s really hard to predict anything other than another fine season for the Rockets. They have the best QB in the conference and a good defense. We worry a bit about special teams and their ability to put adequate pressure on the QB. And can the OL just be “perpetually awesome” ? In any event they sure look like a solid pick to get to the MAC Title Game in 2017.
The Rockets appear to have enough talent to bank a winning season vs Vegas. We will probably avoid them when laying double digits and will try and find value in their more competitive match-ups.
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