College Football Predictions – Western Michigan Broncos 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 13-1
2016 ATS – 9-5
The Broncos rowed that boat to a phenomenal 13-0 regular season and MAC Championship. They held their own against a really tough Wisconsin team in the COTTON BOWL but came up on the short end 24-16. Lots to be proud of in Kalamazoo. Now comes the hard part. Making a run at another title without a number of key players and their excellent head coach.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
MAC – TBD
West Division – TBD
OFFENSE
Ok. Might as well deal with the big issue right away – QB. The Broncos lose excellent signal caller Zach Terrell who had a LIGHTS-OUT 33-4 TD to INT ratio last season. There is essentially no experience at the QB position, and no matter who wins the job, there are big shoes to fill. The good news is that the running game should be excellent with a pair of really talented runners on board (Jarvion Franklin, Jamauri Bogan) that combined for over 2,300 yards and 20 TDs (!) on the ground in 2016. The offensive line will be among the best in the conference and have rock solid performers at C and LT.
Western Michigan has been devastating on offense the past couple of seasons as they were able to complement a great passing attack with a dangerous running game. In addition to the inexperience at QB it is also very concerning that there will be a total reload at WR. We expect to see some struggles early on when the Broncos attempt to MATRICULATE in the passing game. Those first two games at USC and Michigan St are going to be difficult.
Overall we are not sure they will be good enough on offense to win the MAC West.
DEFENSE
The Broncos were rock solid on defense last year leading the MAC in scoring defense (19.8) (!) and finishing a close 2nd in total defense. This year they feature a lot of experience at all three levels of the defense, and in particular, the LB corps looks really good with three flat out STUDS who ended last campaign as the #1, #2 and #4 leading tacklers. Robert Spillane and Asantay Brown garnered 2nd Team MAC honors. The secondary returns 3/4 starters and the Broncos finished 3rd in pass efficiency defense in the conference last year.
Our biggest concern is the loss of DL Keion Adams who led the team with 7.5 sacks and 18 TFL in 2016. The Broncos defense has had their best seasons recently when they were effective rushing the passer and creating havoc.
SPECIAL TEAMS
P Derrick Mitchell did a decent job in shared duty last season but the Broncos will have to introduce a new PK. Darius Phillips was one of the few players in the FBS that returned both a punt and a kickoff for TDs in 2016. There appears to be some promise here.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
September 9 – at Michigan St. The Broncos start the season with a probable ugly dismantling at the hands of the USC Trojans. Then they travel east to face a Spartans team that is going to be very ornery after last year’s HOT MESS. They may be catching a bundle of points but it feels like a tough spot.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Despite being a pretty good football program for the past decade the Broncos only have one bowl win to their credit. A victory over MTSU in the 2015 Bahamas Bowl. That made it a grand TOTAL of one bowl victory in school history.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BRONCOS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
The schedule is really strange. It starts out with two tough road games and finishes with another potent road combination (Northern Illinois, Toledo). In the middle there is a tasty and exotic collection of patsies and lesser-talented foes that should be feasted upon. When it comes to the point spread we recommend taking a wait and see approach. The QB situation is a complete unknown and Tim Lester is a first year HC.
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