College Football Predictions – Air Force Falcons 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 10-3
2016 ATS – 6-7
The Falcons rattled off their 2nd 10-win season in the last three years after defeating South Alabama in the Arizona Bowl. That impressive 10-3 record included another (yawn) win over Boise St as the Falcons became the first team to beat the Broncos three straight times since the John Adams administration. The team finished strong with 6 consecutive wins. Yes, guy.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain West -TBD
Mountain Division – TBD
OFFENSE
Air Force were their usual lethal selves last year putting up 35 points and 450 yards per contest. The really great thing about this offense is that they have figured out how to run for 300 yards per game while still MATRICULATING enough in the passing game to really balance things out. QB Arion Worthman took over the starting job when Nate Romine was injured and led the team to six straight wins down the stretch. Both men are back and both are very capable of running the offense.
The running game should crank out the usual 300+ yards a game. RB Tim McVey had an amazing 8.5 (!) yards per carry last season and was 2nd on the team in rushing. The offensive line returns three starters and has senior leadership. The big loss is #1 WR Jalen Robinette (Air Force career leader in receiving yards) who averaged a mind-boggling 27.4 yards per reception in 2016. There is promise in the receiving corps according to MEGALOCKS AIR FORCE INSIDERS.
DEFENSE
Whoa. Returning starter stats can be misleading when discussing service academies, but having said that, the fact remains that the Falcons only return one (!) starter from the 2016 unit and they will be without 12/13 last season’s top tacklers. THAT is pretty crazy. We have no doubt that the new starters will get coached up and play with the WHITE HOT INTENSITY OF 1000 SUNS but there has to be some concern regarding the inexperience. Four of their first five games are tough so they will have to be ready to roll early in the campaign. The Falcons only return 6/30 sacks on defense and we worry about their ability to apply pressure on opposing QBs and generate negative plays.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Falcons look pretty solid in this area. PK Luke Strebel made 22/25 FGs (!) last year and the PR and KR units were very good. Look for Tim McVey to return another KR to the house in 2017. Air Force will have to break in a new punter.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
October 28 – at Colorado St. This will be the Falcons’ 5th (!) road game in seven weeks. Those road tilts will have included games against Michigan, New Mexico and Navy. There is also the game with Army on deck. The Falcons are tough enough to handle the grind but we worry about the focus if they already have a couple of conference losses at this point.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is awarded to the winner of the Army-Navy-Air Force series. A tie means the award is shared, but in the event of a tie, the previous season’s winner (in this case AIR FORCE) retains possession of the trophy.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the FALCONS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
Keep in mind that we are typing this with an Air Force football T-shirt proudly displayed. #BiasAlert
The offense should be a typical Air Force well-oiled machine. We like the situation at QB and it can never hurt to bank an average of 300 yards rushing per game. The tricky part in assessing their ATS prospects comes when you think about the inexperience on defense and a tough early season schedule. Our prediction is for 7-8 wins and a bowl appearance. The ATS record should float somewhere close to .500. That means we will still be looking for optimal spots and value to play on these guys. Go FLYBOYS.
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