Boise St Broncos 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Boise St Broncos 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 10-3

2016 ATS – 4-9

Well, it has been a while between drinks. For for the second consecutive season, the Broncos failed to make the Mountain West Championship game. Not a big deal for mere mortals but this is Boise St we are talking about here. They finished with a 10-3 record but the standards are high at Boise St. Everyone expects a bit more, and while that probably isn’t fair, it illustrates the tradition of winning that has been established. 10 wins ? Meh.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Mountain West -TBD

Mountain Division – TBD

OFFENSE

QB Brett Rypien put up some impressive stats last season (3,646 24-8 TD to INT) and is poised to have another big year in 2017. Rypien is only a junior and but has logged a lot of miles in Boise (6,996 passing yards over two years). That experience should come in handy this season as the Broncos will be without a couple of key offensive performers from the 2016 squad and will feature a young offensive line with only two returning starters.

The big loss is the McWEAPON RB Jeremy McNichols who left early to enter the NFL draft. He was the key to their offense last season tallying over 1,700 yards rushing and 23 (!) TDs while also catching 37 balls out of the backfield. There are some interesting young RBs (Alex Mattison, Robert Mahone, Drake Beasley) and it will be interesting to see if they can find yet another star in that position group. MEGALOCKS BOISE ST INSIDERS told us that RB Ryan Wolpin was a pleasant surprise in the Spring Game. Leading WR from 2016 Thomas Sperbeck departs but Cedrick Wilson had a great campaign (1,129, 11 TD) and averaged a MIND-BLOWING 20.2 yards per catch.

The potential is certainly here. We are just a bit concerned about the inexperience on the offensive line.

DEFENSE

Boise St has played pretty well on defense the past couple of seasons finishing 2nd on both occasions in Mountain West scoring defense (23.3, 20.2). It may be tricky to repeat that performance in 2017 as the Broncos only return four starters on the defensive side of the ball.

The good news is that the DL looks to be the strength of the defense and we love ourselves some good old-fashioned line play. DT David Moa was a 1st Team MW performer last season while registering 8.5 sacks. Boise will be without all three of last season’s starters at LB and that could spell trouble with all the OFFENSIVELY-MINDED JUGGERNAUTS in their division. Boise only intercepted 7 passes last season (!) (T104 FBS) and they need to do a better job in that area this year.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Hmm. New freshman PK and P. Cedrick Wilson does a good job on returns. Keep an eye on the kicking game.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

November 11 – at Colorado St. This will be the Broncos’ 4th road contest in six weeks and Colorado St is on the cusp of becoming the new big kid on the block.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Amaze your local HOT DOG VENDOR with this gem. Boise St only recovered TWO fumbles in 13 games last season. When you combine that with the low INT total it is not hard to see how the Broncos finished up (-9) in turnover margin.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the BRONCOS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.

Let’s deal with elephant in the room. We made an incorrect call on Boise St last year predicting a winning record against the number. They finished up 4-9 ATS. While it is true that the horrifying turnover margin (-9) was the main culprit that was still an egregious take. The Boise lines stayed high most of the season. Mid-year they were 4-TD favorites vs Colorado St (wut ?) and a couple weeks later they were 2-TD favorites over Wyoming on the road.

What do we think this season ? We cannot give a high ATS Value Rating to a team with so many new faces on the OL and in the defensive back seven. And that kicking game ? Boise backers can be optimistic that the point spreads are more reasonable this season after the 2016 ATS debacle.

The talent is here, but just keep in mind, Boise is the ultimate THEY ARE GONNA KILL EM GUY – and – CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY favorite. Remember that they are just 2-10 L12 vs Vegas the past two seasons as home chalk. Use caution, but keep an eye on the lines to see if some of that Boise premium disappears.

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