College Football Predictions – Fresno St Bulldogs 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 1-11
2016 ATS – 6-5-1
Yuck.
The Bulldogs struggled to a 1-11 mark last season with their lone win coming against FCS foe Sacramento St. They played more inspired football late in the season under interim HC Eric Kiesau losing their final two games by a combined three points. New HC Jeff Tedford arrives on the scene to try and turn this program around. Fresno St has been really good before. There is definitely room for optimism.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain West -TBD
Mountain Division – TBD
OFFENSE
The Bulldogs struggled mightily on offense the past two seasons averaging just 22.3 points per game in 2015 (#107 FBS) and 17.7 (!) in 2016 (#125 FBS). Things have to get better quickly.
Chason Virgil is the leading candidate for the starting QB role and should move forward in his sophomore season. New HC Jeff Tedford has a good track record with quarterbacks and he should be able to get Virgil to improve on his 13-10 TD to INT ratio. It will also help to have a very good WR group to rely upon including a couple of 700+ yard men (KeeSean Johnson, Jamire Jordan) from 2016. Last year’s #1 RB Dontel James returns as part of a promising committee that will enjoy running behind an offensive line that features 5/5 returning starters.
DEFENSE
The run defense was a HOT MESS last season allowing 248 yards per game and there were also issues getting PENETRATION as the Bulldogs only picked up 14 sacks (2nd last MW) while also finishing 2nd last in the conference in TFL per game.
This season the Bulldogs lose their top-2 tacklers but do have a decent-looking front seven in terms of experience. The DL and LB units feature 5/7 returning starters and there is some beef at DT. The secondary is a big concern as only one starter returns from last season’s group and they will be without 2016 leading tackler and 2nd Team MW performer Stratton Brown. It is going to be hard to improve the PPG allowed unless they find a way to increase the sack and TFL totals. Skeptical.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Bulldogs look pretty solid on special teams. PK Kody Kroening made 15/17 FGs last season and they also return a fine P and a good set of return men.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
November 18 – at Wyoming. The Bulldogs play this one at the highest elevation in college football (#KnowledgeBomb) just a week after playing in Hawaii. Have fun with that.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Fresno St has not won a bowl game since the 2007 Humanitarian Bowl vs Georgia Tech. Six losses in a row.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BULLDOGS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
The Bulldogs have a pretty tough schedule this season. Back-to-back road games with Alabama and Washington seems unusually cruel. They also have a few other tough road games and must face BYU and Boise St at home. It seems to us that every win should be cherished.
When thinking about their success vs the point spread it feels like they could be a bit underrated. They were a disaster last year and still finished 6-5-1 ATS. They will be catching plenty of points in most games and have a much improved offense, a better head coach and optimism to boot. Keep these guys in mind when conference play starts.
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