College Football Predictions – San Diego St Aztecs 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 11-3
2016 ATS – 7-7
How about back-to-back JACKS for the San Diego St Aztecs ?
San Diego St won their 2nd consecutive Mountain West Title last year thanks to a devastating running game and a solid defense. They lost for the second consecutive season to the South Alabama Jaguars (wut ?) and were blown out in a meaningless game vs Colorado St. Other than that ? Really really good. Again. What can they do for an encore ?
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain West -TBD
Mountain Division – TBD
OFFENSE
Ok, here comes the running game. Now try and stop it.
The Aztecs lose superstar RB Donnel Pumphrey (2,133, 17 TD) but still have the luxury of a 1000-yard back from last season in Rashaad Penny as well as Juwan Washington (441, 8.0 – !) ready to rip apart opposing run defenses. The big concern with the offense is how the retooled OL will perform as they only return one starter from last season’s group. Fortunately the Mountain West is not known for its stellar run defense so there is hope.
QB Christian Chapman is an underrated and efficient QB who is a fine fit for what the Aztecs want to do on offense. He will be pleased to know that leading WR Mikah Holder (21.5 per catch) is back this season as is their fine TE David Wells.
DEFENSE
The Aztecs run defense has been outstanding the past two seasons (#6 FBS last season, #7 in 2015) but will be challenged to maintain a similar ranking this year with only six starters returning to the stop unit. They will also be without last year’s leading tackler Calvin Munson who led the team with 116 tackles while registering 11 TFL. Opposing RBs no longer need to worry about being MUNSONED.
There are some concerns about the pass defense suffering after star CB Demontae Kazee graduated to the NFL as well as the lost production in the sacks and TFL department. Rocky Long will have these guys playing good defense. Hard to project them as being “great”.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kaboom. This should be one of the best units in the FBS. PK John Baron made 21/23 FGs last year and garnered 1st Team MW honors. The Aztecs have a new punter but it is an experienced and skilled leg in Steven Coutts. San Diego St returned 3 KO for TDs last year and both lethal weapons are back in 2017, however, Rashaad Penny may give up these duties as he is now the #1 RB.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
September 30 – NORTHERN ILLINOIS. This is a conference sandwich game (Air Force, UNLV) and Rocky Long’s ATS track record is not stellar when facing non-conference foes (see below).
MEGAmazing Tidbits
San Diego St was an amazing +36 in turnover margin the past two seasons.
The Aztecs have won their past two bowl games by a combined score of 76-17.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the AZTECS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
The Aztecs are now REALLY in the role of THE HUNTED as back-to-back conference champions. The division looks even weaker than usual this season so another run at a title is not out of the question. From a point-spread perspective it is hard to recommend this team knowing about the inexperience on the OL and the missing pieces on defense. The turnover margin will likely turn around (significantly ?) if they cannot get the same level of PENETRATION from the defense.
Rocky Long has an amazing 31-17-1 (64.6%) ATS record against conference foes in his tenure at San Diego St but only a 11-20 (35.5%) (!!) mark against non-conference competition. We recommend being careful backing the Aztecs this season but feel free to take a stab or two in conference play if you recognize value.
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