College Football Predictions – UNLV Rebels 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 4-8
2016 ATS – 6-6
The arrow is still trending “up”.
There has been improvement in each of HC Tony’s Sanchez’s first two seasons at UNLV. The Rebels have increased their win total and scoring offense in each of the past two seasons. Last year they did well to bag four wins given all the injuries at WR and the GONG SHOW at QB. They did manage to win a 69-66 (!) 3-OT game vs a very good Wyoming team. On to 2017.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain West -TBD
Mountain Division – TBD
OFFENSE
The Rebels have to get better production at QB. Last season they were ranked a comical #125 in the FBS in completion percentage just ahead of passing game juggernauts Air Force, Army and Tulane. The hope is that highly-recruited redshirt freshman Armani Rogers will win the gig. Johnny Football 2.0 (Johnny Stanton) and Kurt Palandech provide depth.
The Rebels had a sneaky good running game last season rushing for 242 yards per game. Their top-2 RBs from last season both return including up-and-coming star Charles Williams who ran for 763 yards as a freshman in 2016. The offensive line returns 4/5 starters and did a great job run blocking last year while only allowing 10 sacks. More good news ? The Rebels’ WR unit was decimated by injury last season and should have markedly better stats in 2017. UNLV will be a dangerous offense if they get any kind of decent performance out of their QBs.
DEFENSE
You knew it could not possibly be all rosy.
UNLV has been steamrolled on defense since – well – seemingly forever. They only return 2 (!) starters on defense coming off a season in which they registered a putrid 19 sacks (#103 FBS). They will be without their top six tacklers from the 2016 unit. <closes eyes> <hopes for the best>
The DL might be passable with a couple of returning starters in the mix. The LB unit is almost completely devoid of experience and the starting group in the secondary is completely new. They only picked off 5 passes last year.
Prognosis ? Pain.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This is an interesting mix. PK Evan Pantels hit 13/14 (!) FGs last year and did a decent job on punts. The return game last season reminded us of an unflushed airplane toilet as they gained negative yardage on punt returns (wut ?) and were brutal on kick returns.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
September 23 – at Ohio St. We will not be laying 10 TDs with Ohio St but will not be taking UNLV in this one either. They will be happy to get destroyed and leave town with fists full of money. The Mountain West schedule is on deck so there is no need to get half of your team hurt. Get those 5th stringers some action.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Rebels have only had one winning season in the past 10 years (7-6 record in 2013). That season they were plastered by North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl in a 2479023759238470 star MEGALOCKS LATE PHONE RELEASE MOVE.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the REBELS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
The possibilities are truly endless. The Rebels are likely to start the season at 3-1, and if that is the case, they would only need to cobble together three more wins the rest of the way to become bowl eligible. That is not out of the question when you look at their schedule. You could also make the case for a really horrible season.
When it comes to beating the point spread the Rebels have a yuuuuge benefit in that they will be able to run the ball against all but the best rush defenses. If they get “average” QB play they should be able to finish with a .500 ATS record. That is, unless the defense is as bad as we think it might be this season. We recommend picking your spots and doing it carefully.
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