College Football Predictions – Utah St Aggies 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 3-9
2016 ATS – 4-8
Pfffffft. The air went out of the balloon.
After an impressive five-year run in which they made FIVE consecutive bowl games the Aggies fell off a cliff last season and finished at 3-9. They played some bowl teams pretty tough (Air Force, Boise St, Colorado St, New Mexico), but at the end of the day, it is hard to hit the .500 mark when you score 24 points per game and allow 29. #HotTake.
The Utah St football program has come a long way this decade but the Mountain West is getting very competitive. The Aggies are gonna have to find another gear but don’t count them out just yet.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain West -TBD
Mountain Division – TBD
OFFENSE
Senior QB Kent Myers and the Aggies’ offense was pretty limited last season. They were 11th in the conference in total offense and need to find a way to get more explosive plays. Myers had a paltry 10-8 TD to INT ratio (16-3 in 2016) but was without star RB D Mays for most of the season to help balance things out. The big plays were not there is the passing game. On to 2017 and new OC David Yost will try and spur improved production.
RB Tonny Lindsey is a back you can build the running game around provided that the OL does a good job. #1 WR Ron’quavion Tarver returns this season but they need to find one or two more dependable receivers. They will also need to find a replacement for their excellent TE Wyatt Houston. The yuuuuge question mark is the offensive line. They did a really good job last season paving the way for 5.0 yards per carry but enter this campaign with very little starting experience (1/5).
DEFENSE
After three straight seasons (!) of allowing less than 20 points per game the Aggies have slid to 26.7 and 29.3 (2016). The main culprit last season was the lack of ability to get adequate PENETRATION (9th MW in sacks per game; 9th TFL). It is hard to see that improving in 2017 with an inexperienced front seven. The DL has new starters and the LB group loses the top tacklers from last season’s unit. The secondary is experienced but is going to need some help from the boys up front if they want to maintain their lofty pass defense ranking (#3 MW pass efficiency defense).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yikes. Potential grease fire in the making. The unit was sub-par last year and this season they need to find a new PK as well as primary return men.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
September 23 – at San Jose St. This will be their 3rd road game and the frequent flier miles have been piling up by now. Wisconsin. Home date. Wake Forest. San Jose St. Oh, and BYU is on deck (Old Wagon Wheel rivalry, yo).
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Utah St had 30 (!) victories and won three straight bowl games from 2012-2014. That was super impressive given the previous recent history of the football program.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the AGGIES a 2.0 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.
MEGALOCKS members were entranced by our call on Utah St last season….“There is too much uncertainty surrounding the defense, the big-play ability at WR as well as the lack of depth at QB for us to give them a higher rating.“ We rated them a 3.5. They finished 4-8 ATS.
Utah St is going to have their hands full in 2017. There are a lot of new faces on defense, a lack of explosiveness on offense as well as a nasty division to navigate.
Just a recap on the ATS Value Rating. It is a combination of 1) expected probability of a winning ATS record 2) potential upside vs downside. We feel that the odds of Utah St bagging a profitable overall season vs Vegas is really low. And the downside is pretty significant as well. The good news is that they avoid San Diego St and the 9-16 (36%) ATS mark over the past two seasons may scare some bettors away. Value may eventually bubble to the top, but it just seems unlikely.
Want more Utah St Aggies Football?
Website
http://www.utahstateaggies.com/sports/m-footbl/ust-m-footbl-body.html
Forum
Free
http://www.usufans.com/Forums/viewforum.php?f=4&sid=4f34df0019e6d10abc7f1dbb86a4b9ac
http://www.scout.com/college/utah-state/forums/2746-sports-forum
News
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/utah-state-aggies
http://bleacherreport.com/utah-state-football
http://www.deseretnews.com/sports/usu
http://www.sltrib.com/sports/usu/
Hashtag – #AggiesAllTheWay
Accounts
https://twitter.com/USUFootball (@USUFootball)