Alabama Crimson Tide 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Alabama Crimson Tide 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 14-1

2016 ATS – 10-4-1

So close.

Alabama was a dominant force yet again and came within a second of claiming back-to-back College Football Championships. ROLL TIDE made MINCED MEAT of the SEC, and overall, won every game on their schedule except one (Ole Miss) by double digits. Fast forward to the epic title game vs Clemson and they were THIS CLOSE to taking home the hardware for the umpteenth time. They were a pleasure to watch. On to 2017.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

SEC – TBD

West Division – TBD

OFFENSE

QB Jalen Hurts completed 63% of his passes while throwing for almsot 2,800 yards at a fine 23-9 TD to INT ratio. In his spare time he ran for 13 TDs including the “almost-game-clincher” vs Clemson. This season he will be complimented by one of the best RB groups we have seen in some time. Damien Harris had 1,000+ yards rushing last season and Bo Scarbrough is an absolute SPECIMEN who could probably rush for 2,500 yards if ROLL TIDE wanted to feed him the ball without mercy. Josh Jacobs averaged 6.7 yards per carry in a supporting role. The offensive line returns 3/5 starters and look to be in great shape despite the loss of LT Cam Robinson. ROLL TIDE will be without last season’s leader in receiving yards ArDarius Stewart and freak TE OJ Howard but do bring back two-time 2nd Team SEC WR Calvin Ridley and lots of raw talent. It feels certain that Alabama will reach the high-30s in points per game.

DEFENSE

The ROLL TIDE run defense was crazy-good last season allowing only 64 yards per game at 2.0 yards a carry. Only three teams managed to hold opponents to under 100 yards rushing per contest and #2 (Western Kentucky) allowed 97.2. That should help you understand how great they were in 2016. Oh, and 13.0 points per game allowed was also #1 in the FBS. What can they do for an encore ?

Alabama only returns five starters to the stop unit but have had that “issue” three times in the last five years and things seemed to work out just fine. The front seven only returns two starters but they do feature a promising DL with Da’Ron Payne and several other highly-touted recruits. Their LB group will definitely miss last season’s leading tackler Rueben Foster but it will be fun to see who emerges as a star in 2017. Having said that, if there is a potential question mark on defense, this is the area that comes to mind. The secondary is loaded with talent and experience including 3rd Team AA S Minkah Fitzpatrick.

If ROLL TIDE has superb unproven talent hiding in the front 7 this D will be lights out. We project a (yawn) season giving up 16-18 points per game.

SPECIAL TEAMS

There is a bit of uncertainty here as Alabama must break in a new PK and will be without ace PR Eddie Jackson. A sure thing ? 3rd Team AA punter JK Scott.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

The schedule sets up pretty well after the mind-blowing opener vs Florida St. We would be a bit leery of laying too many points vs Colorado St on September 16 as SEC play is on deck. And the Rams are a budding JUGGERNAUT.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

You want PENETRATION ? How about 107 sacks over the past two seasons ?

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the CRIMSON TIDE a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.

They appear to be devastating. ROLL TIDE is the clear favorite in the conference in our view but we doubt the QB play in the SEC will be as all-around brutal as it was in 2016. Add in an EPIC showdown with Florida St and there is reason to believe that Alabama will have a lot more trouble escaping the regular season undefeated than they did last year.

Alabama has gone 18-11-1 ATS (62%) the past two season despite being awesome and on the tip of everyone’s degenerate betting radar. The point spreads are shaded their way but it does not seem to matter. We see more big point spreads this season and will use our typical Alabama strategy. Look hard at them every week but be leery when the lines get super-inflated. Stay tuned.

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