Arkansas Razorbacks 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Arkansas Razorbacks 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 7-6

2016 ATS – 5-8

It was entertaining, often comically so, as the Razorbacks sputtered their way to a 7-6 record. There were some good times – wins over TCU and Florida. There were some dark days – getting absolutely smoked by Auburn and blowing a 24-0 lead in the Belk Bowl (a 248739759 star MEGALOCKS DIAMOND CLUB PREMIUM LATE PHONE RELEASE LOSER). Overall it was just, meh.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

SEC – TBD

West Division – TBD

OFFENSE

Senior QB Austin Allen is back for another kick at the cat. Allen threw for over 3,400 yards and 25 TDs last season. He also threw a ton of INTs (15) and was pummeled beyond recognition at times (35 sacks allowed – 2nd worst SEC). The offensive line returns 4/5 starters including an AA center (Frank Ragnow) so there is hope for improvement. The OL also has ridiculous size and we see no reason why they cannot improve in the run game. Losing last season’s leading rusher Rawleigh Williams (1,360, 12 TD) to injury is definitely a blow. Let’s see what happens.

When Allen does MATRICULATE in the passing game it will be to a much more inexperienced group of targets than he enjoyed last year. Six of their top seven leaders in receiving yardage from last campaign are gone and it will be up to Allen to keep the passing game rolling at a high level.

DEFENSE

The Razorbacks’ defense slid once again in 2016 yielding 31.1 points per game. In 2014 they yielded just 19.2. The run defense was sketchy for most of the year and downright BRUTAL vs Auburn when they allowed an impossible 543 (!) yards rushing. Yup. That happened. New DC Paul Rhodes moves them to a 3-4 alignment and has six returning starters with which to work.

We worry about their ability to get PENETRATION as nobody with more than 2.5 sacks in 2016 is back for duty this season. They will also be without last season’s leading tackler LB Brooks Ellis. The pass defense should be bolstered by a secondary that returns 3/4 starters including solid CB Ryan Pulley. Overall we are skeptical of seeing any significant improvement on defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is an area of concern. PK Cole Hedlund is only 14/22 on FGs in two seasons including a paltry 1/5 from 40+ yards. They need to find a new punter and improve the return units. That’s it.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

October 28 – at Mississippi. This will be the Razorbacks 3rd road game in four weeks. Their previous three games at this point ? South Carolina, ROLL TIDE and Auburn. Not an ideal spot, yo.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Guess who coached the Razorbacks for seven seasons, made six consecutive bowl games and never had a losing record ? Yup, our pal LOU HOLTZ. He once led them to a yuuuge win over an Oklahoma team coached by Barry Switzer in the Orange Bowl. #KnowledgeBomb

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the RAZORBACKS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.

MEGALOCKS Nation was mesmerized by our ATS call on the Razorbacks last year…. “Arkansas has been a big-time money maker the last two seasons ATS (18-7-1, 72%) but we see regression coming vs the number in 2016.”

It is hard to get too jacked up about the Hogs ATS prospects this season. Now to be clear, there is definitely some upside, but we just do not see the defense being good enough to give many teams problems. Austin Allen is a huge plus at QB but they have a lot of inexperience at WR. We would love to see them just pulverize people with a strong running game but doubt that will be the game plan.

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