Mississippi St Bulldogs 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Mississippi St Bulldogs 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 6-7

2016 ATS – 5-8

Mississippi St slithered into bowl season with a 5-7 record and needed a blocked FG to hold off Miami Ohio in the St Petersburg Bowl. (Ed note: not played in Russia) Their season started off with a DEBACLE allowing South Alabama to play GIANT KILLER in a 21-20 upset win. They recovered to beat South Carolina and lose a close one to LSU. After that there was not much to see other than a SPANKING of Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl to end the regular season.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

SEC – TBD

West Division – TBD

OFFENSE

It all starts and ends with star QB Nick Fitzgerald. It’s not easy for a QB in the SEC to throw for 2,400 yards and rush for another 1,375 yards and 16 TDs (!!) but that is exactly what the Bulldogs’ signal caller did in 2016. The Bulldogs will not be able to move up in the SEC West pecking order unless they can find a way to help Fitzgerald out on offense. <grabs popcorn>

Fitzgerald will be able to count on last year’s leading RB rusher Aeris Williams but there are no experienced runners behind him on the depth chart. The offensive line is a bit of a concern as they only return 2/5 starters, and as you know, you need to be on top of your game in the SEC West. WR Donald Gray is a great target (17.3 yards per catch – 2016) but they will be without all-time receiving yards leader Fred Ross and possibly Malik Dear who sustained an ACL injury in the spring. It seems to us that the play of the offensive line is going to be extra yuuuuge in determining their fortunes on offense in 2017. Stay tuned.

DEFENSE

The Bulldogs’ defense took a big step back last season giving up 31.8 points per game. They had not given up more than 24 in any of the previous six seasons. The culprits ? Run defense (4.8 yards per carry allowed) and the lack of PENETRATION (25 sacks – T8 SEC) needed to be a contending player in this tough division. The hope is that new new DC Todd Grantham can COACH EM UP.

There are concerns for this year’s unit as they return just six starters to the mix and will be without last season’s leading tackler LB Richie Brown. PENETRATION is still a concern as nobody returns that registered over 2.5 sacks in 2016. The secondary has a lot of experience but keep in mind that they did allow 33 TD passes last year which ranked them dead last by a large margin in the SEC (2nd last was 20).

We have fairly grave concerns about the defense. Hopefully we are proven wrong.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Bulldogs special teams unit did not fare well in 2016 and this year they need to find a new PK and do a better job on punt returns.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

September 30 – at Auburn. This will be the Bulldogs 3rd road date in four weeks and it will be a game with the Auburn Tigers who ripped them apart in 2016. Danger !

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The last (and only) time the Bulldogs captured the SEC championship was back in 1941. The were SEC West champs in 1998.

Mississippi St has an 8-2 record in their past 10 bowl games.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the BULLDOGS a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.

The Bulldogs appear to be in pretty deep this season. We have a ton of respect for QB Nick Fitzgerald, and know that Dan Mullen is a good coach, but we wish there was more hope for the defense to return to 2010-2015 levels. Not sure that is going to happen in 2017.

The Bulldogs reeled off three consecutive winning campaigns against the point spread before falling to 5-8 ATS last year. It feels like another sub-.500 campaign buried in a solid SEC West where little mercy is shown to opponents. Caution.

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