Tennessee Volunteers 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Tennessee Volunteers 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 9-4

2016 ATS – 5-7-1

The Volunteers started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE winning their first five games including victories over Florida and Georgia. Then the wheels fell off. They lost their next three games and finished up at 9-4 after a bowl win over Nebraska. It was really disappointing for Volunteers’ fans to see them have the SEC East crown well within their grasp and fall short.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

SEC – TBD

East Division – TBD

OFFENSE

It will definitely be a bit strange watching the Volunteers take the field without QB Joshua Dobbs. Yes, Dobbs was inconsistent, but he could also take over a game for large chunks of time. Tennessee will feature a new signal caller and it will almost certainly be Quinten Dormady or redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano. There is a lot of upside at the position but the SEC is not the easiest place to prosper with QBs that are learning on the job. MEGALOCKS SEC INSIDERS advised us that Dormady had a fine spring and looks to be the clear favorite heading into fall camp.

The Volunteers are going to find it difficult to replace the production that RB Alvin Kamara provided in both the running game (596, 9 TDs) and receiving out of the backfield (40 catches, 4 TD). John Kelly looks to be the #1 back and he averaged 6.4 (!) yards per carry in 2016. Kelly and some unproven talent will have the benefit of running behind an experienced and talented offensive line. That should make the QB transition a lot easier. A lack of experience at WR is a bit of a concern as there is nobody in the 2017 group that recorded more than 600 yards receiving last season.

Overall, we expect inconsistency, but have a good feeling about Dormady at QB and the running game. It will be interesting to see how potent their offense can be under new OC Larry Scott without the phenomenal running ability of Joshua Dobbs. <grabs popcorn>

DEFENSE

Last season the Volunteers struggled with injuries on defense and got worn out down the stretch. They allowed 36,37 and 45 points in their final three games (Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt) (?) before holding Nebraska to 24 points in their Music City Bowl triumph.

Tennessee allowed 219 yards rushing per game in 2016 (11th SEC) and only return one starter on the DL this season. They lose 20 (!) of the 30 sacks from the 2016 defense with the departure of Derek Barnett (13) and Corey Vereen (7). We worry about the Volunteers’ ability to post the necessary improved run defense statistics and apply the same level of PENETRATION as they did last year. The LB and DB units look really good as they return almost all of their starters from last season, and hopefully, they can stay relatively healthy. The projected starting duo at safety looks rock solid with Todd Kelly and Micah Abernathy.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Yes, guy. Tennessee has a solid PK and P combination and KR Evan Berry is a TD waiting to happen. We would not be shocked to see the Volunteers win an extra close game (or two) due to yuuuuge plays on special teams.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

September 23 – Massachusetts. This contest pops up in between their two biggest SEC East games (Florida, Georgia) and they will be laying a ton of points. Not an ideal spot, yo.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Volunteers are 19-9 at home but just 6-12 (!!) on the road under the watch of HC Butch Jones.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the VOLUNTEERS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.

It is not a particularly strong take, but after reviewing the evidence, it appears that the Volunteers could be good enough to win the SEC East and also be disappointing enough to lose four games. The QB play needs to surprise and the run defense has to stiffen up a bit for the Vols to win the division.

Tennessee has been a fairly non-exciting 25-25-1 (.500 for math wizards) vs the point spread over the past four seasons. It seems to us that another roller coaster season is in the cards. Lots of talent on board but some head-scratching moments as well. Pick your spots.

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