College Football Predictions – Vanderbilt Commodores 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 6-7
2016 ATS – 7-6
That was a scrappy performance.
Vanderbilt was on the outside looking in at a bowl appearance sitting with a record of 4-6 after ten games. They pulled off upsets over Ole Miss and Tennessee to finish the regular season at 6-6. They were beat handily by North Carolina St in the Independence Bowl, but overall, the season has to be considered a moderate success with a bowl game appearance and wins over Georgia and Tennessee.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
SEC – TBD
East Division – TBD
OFFENSE
The Commodores scored more than 20 points per game (23) for the first time in HC Derek Mason’s tenure last year and bring back 9 starters to the mix in 2017. QB Kyle Shurmur had mediocre stats but got better as the season went along, and don’t forget, he lit up Tennessee like a Christmas Tree in the final regular season game to the tune of over 400 yards. Shurmur will enjoy having the entire WR group back this season including Caleb Scott who averaged almost 20 yards per reception (19.4) in 2016. The passing game promises to be much improved. Hopefully the offensive line can do a better job in pass protection as they allowed 32 sacks (#12 SEC) in 2016.
The bread will be buttered with a really good-looking RB group. Ralph Webb was a force last season picking up over 1,200 yards on the ground and 13 TDs and is back for his senior season. Khari Blasingame scored 10 times in 2016. The offensive line brings back 3/5 starters and should allow the Commodores to improve their rushing yards per game total once again in 2017.
DEFENSE
Vanderbilt has been solid on defense the past two seasons but will now have to move forward without star LB and leading tackler Zach Cunningham. He was a MEGALOCKS favorite and hopefully he does well in the NFL. The good news is that HC Derek Mason knows defense AND they return seven starters to the stop unit. The bad news ? They had a tough time getting PENETRATION last season registering only 15 sacks. Cunningham was a TFL machine. The secondary brings back 3/4 starters but only picked off 5 (!) passes last year (last SEC). It seems to us that the Commodores will have a be a lot more disruptive if they want to maintain the level of defense we have been accustomed to seeing the past two seasons.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Vanderbilt promises to have a good kicking game as PK Tommy Openshaw nailed 15/19 FGs last year and P Sam Loy was solid. They will miss Darrius Sims on KRs but they bring back a good punt returner in Kalija Lipscomb.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Vanderbilt has a winning record against just one current SEC school. Auburn (.512). Amaze your pals with that gem.
The Commodores finished up (+4) in turnover margin in 2016 after going a combined (-24) in the first two seasons under HC Derek Mason.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the COMMODORES a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
This might be a bit of a different Commodores team. The offense should be a lot better but the defense may take a step backwards. The schedule is no picnic and it feels like they will do well to bag six wins and get to another bowl game. HC Derek Mason is easy to cheer for and we hope they get it done.
As far as covering the point spread Vanderbilt has been pretty consistent under Mason with a record of 20-17 vs Vegas over a three-year period. They have been really good in SEC games ATS (15-9; 62.5%) and that will be our focus this year when considering them for a play.
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